2021-10-14-IRENA-NDCs_in_2020_40页_8mb

Summary

This report by IRENA analyzes the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement. It assesses that NDC targets for renewable power fall short of climate goals, reflecting insufficient ambition. The implementation of current NDCs would result in approximately 3.2 TW of renewable power capacity by 2030, yet the global energy transformation scenario suggests a potential for 7.7 TW.

Key findings:

1. Current NDC power targets leave 59% of cost-effective renewable potential untapped by 2030.
2. Global deployment growth (8.6% annually since 2015) exceeds NDC implementation projections (4% annually).
3. 135 countries have renewable electricity targets in national plans or strategies, but 85 only have unconditional targets in NDCs.
4. Untapped potential is highest in Asia (3000 GW), North America (896 GW), and Europe (290 GW) by 2030.

Beyond power sector:

1. Emissions reduction requires transforming the entire energy system through renewables, efficiency, and electrification.
2. Achieving climate goals requires USD 37 trillion in investments by 2050.
3. Just transition policies are essential, combining deployment strategies with enabling measures (coordination, finance) and integrating policies (sector coupling, workforce training).

Recommendations:

1. Countries should align 2020 NDC revisions with existing national energy plans.
2. Raise renewable targets beyond power generation (expanding to transport, heating, and industry).
3. Strengthen global mobilization of public and private finance.
4. Establish integrated policy frameworks to support energy transformation and mitigate socio-economic impacts.

Sources highlight IRENA's continued assessment of NDCs and renewable deployment trends, reinforcing the urgency and opportunity of strengthening 2020 NDCs.