IRENA-2021日本的可再生能源拍卖：背景，设计和结果（英文）-2021.1-41页_18mb

报告摘要

Summary of Renewable Energy Auctions in Japan: Context, Design and Results

Core Content

This document provides an overview of renewable energy auctions in Japan, focusing on their context, design, and results. It highlights the transition from the feed-in tariff (FiT) system to auctions as a more sustainable and competitive mechanism for promoting renewable energy deployment. The report is authored by IRENA and discusses the outcomes of solar PV and biomass auctions, as well as the factors influencing auction prices.

Main Points

1. National Context for Renewable Energy Auctions

Japan's energy and electricity sectors have historically relied heavily on fossil fuels and nuclear power, but the Fukushima disaster in 2011 marked a shift toward renewables.
Despite a decrease in per capita total final energy consumption since 2002, Japan's energy intensity improved significantly due to energy efficiency measures.
In 2017, with the FiT scheme becoming fiscally unsustainable, Japan introduced renewable energy auctions to drive the transition to renewables.

2. Renewable Energy Auction Results

As of October 2020, Japan had conducted five solar PV auctions and two biomass auctions, with plans for an offshore wind auction.
Solar PV auctions awarded almost one-third of the originally announced volumes (574 MW out of 1,663 MW auctioned).
Biomass auctions have not resulted in any contracted projects, with undersubscription issues in both rounds.
Solar PV prices fell by over 35% between the first and fifth auction rounds, from JPY 19.64/kWh to JPY 12.57/kWh.
Despite the price drops, solar PV prices in Japan are still higher than the global average and higher than other countries with similar economic conditions.

3. Factors Affecting Auction Price Results

High installation and module costs are a primary factor in the relatively high cost of solar power in Japan.
Risk perception plays a role, as developers face uncertainties in grid connection and potential curtailment without compensation.
Strict qualification rules, especially in the first solar PV auction, and bond confiscation policies deterred bidder participation.
Lack of competition in some rounds led to higher prices, suggesting that improving auction design could further reduce prices.

4. Auction Design

Auction demand was initially set to promote renewable deployment and meet national targets.
Qualification requirements and documentation were stringent, with developers needing to meet specific criteria to participate.
Winner selection was based on the lowest bid price, with the contract award process aiming to ensure fair and transparent outcomes.
Risk allocation and remuneration of sellers were key considerations, with the aim of balancing cost and reliability.

5. Conclusions

Auctions have proven to be an effective tool for price discovery and promoting competitive renewable energy deployment.
However, challenges such as undersubscription, strict rules, and grid access issues have limited their success in certain sectors.
The introduction of a Feed-in Premium (FiP) scheme in 2020, to be implemented in 2022, is expected to complement the FiT scheme and further support renewable deployment.
Policy improvements in auction design, including better communication of expectations and smoother grid integration, are needed to enhance the effectiveness of auctions.

Key Information

Renewable energy targets for 2030: 13-14% of primary energy supply and 22-24% of the power mix.
Solar PV capacity increased significantly from 2010 to 2019, growing 2.7 times.
Solar PV LCOE decreased by 64% from 2011 to 2019 and is projected to decrease by another 62% by 2030.
Biomass auctions had low participation and no successful bids, indicating the need for policy adjustments.
Auction design elements such as clear communication, flexible rules, and support for timely project completion are crucial for success.
Strict compliance rules in the first solar PV auction, including bond confiscation, discouraged participation.
Price discovery in solar PV auctions was effective, with prices approaching the ceiling and reflecting the actual cost of generation.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1 shows the generation mix in Japan from 2010 to 2018, highlighting the growth of renewables.
Figure 2 illustrates the increase in renewable installed capacity from 2010 to 2019.
Figure 3 details the changes in solar PV FiT eligibility criteria and tariffs over time.
Figure 4 depicts the undersubscription in Japan's biomass auctions.
Figure 5 compares the number of auctioned, registered, qualified, participating, awarded, and contracted bids in solar PV auctions.
Table 1 summarizes the results of the first five solar PV auction rounds.

Boxes

Box 1 discusses the outcomes of Japan's biomass auctions, highlighting the issue of undersubscription and the need for improved qualification criteria.
Box 2 outlines the zone-specific auction design for offshore wind, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches.
Box 3 highlights the strict compliance rules in the first solar PV auction, which may have affected bidder behavior.