2022-01-01-IRENA-NDCs_and_Renewable_Energy_Targets_in_2021_46页_5mb

NDCs and Renewable Energy Targets in 2021: Climate Path Overview

Executive Summary

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement have increased in ambition but still fall short of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. As of November 2021, NDCs submitted could limit temperatures to 2.7°C by 2100. Key gaps:

• Renewable Energy: 40% of NDCs lack specific renewable targets, and existing targets are insufficient to meet IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario which requires renewables (especially electricity) to reach 74% of primary energy supply by 2050.
• Finance: Huge investment gaps exist (USD 131 trillion needed by 2050), with reliance on fossil fuel finance in developing countries persisting.
• Equity: Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island States bear disproportionate climate costs with minimal financial support.

1. Overview of NDCs (by Novel 2021)

• Ambition Status: 91 Parties (63% emissions) improved targets; 63% emissions cover further NDCs with same/looser targets; 27 Parties delayed submissions.
• Net Zero Commitments: 177 countries (90% nations) have net zero plans, mostly with international support conditions.

2. Renewable Energy Components

• Power Sector Targets: Only 60 Parties set electricity mix targets (median ambition: 25-59% by 2030), while LDCs and SIDS show strong commitments.
• National-Level Plans: 32 LDCs/27 SIDS submitted new NDCs since 2020; 44 Parties included renewable targets, but few integrated into laws/plans.
• Needed Capacity: Existing NDC targets imply only 0.9TW new capacity by 2030 (1/3 of 1.5°C pathway need).

3. Climate Finance and Energy Transition

• Investment Needs: USD 131 trillion required (2021-2050). Renewable power investment alone needs USD 1 trillion/year (triple 2020 levels).
• Coal Phase-out: Glasgow pledged to end public coal finance by 2022, but implementation is criticized.
• LDC Support: Climate finance for LDCs remains insufficient (averages 21% of global flows), with risk-mitigation tools underutilized.
• GFANZ Initiative: 450+ financial institutions committed to net-zero portfolios by 2050, but ambition gaps persist.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Critical Need: Translation of NDC ambition into binding national policies, financed by redirecting public capital toward renewables and electrification.
• Key Actions: Strengthen NDC implementation frameworks, ramp up public climate finance flows especially for LDCs, and accelerate coal phase-out with just transition finance.