2022-12-11-IMF-乌兹别克斯坦向通胀目标过渡（英）_27页_902kb

Summary of Uzbekistan's Transition to Inflation Targeting

Background

Uzbekistan has made significant strides in improving its monetary policy framework to achieve inflation targeting by 2023, starting in 2017. A key change was removing the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) from government control, enhancing operational independence. Pre-reform monetary policy was pegged to an exchange rate, limiting effectiveness.

Progress Made

• Institutional Enhancements: The CBU adopted a new central bank law in 2019, setting price stability as the primary goal. Governance improved through appointed independent board members.
• Monetary Policy Operations: The decision-making process was formalized with seven stages. Policy rates and liquidity management improved, including standing facilities and open market operations.
• Analytical Capacity: Short-term forecasting models and inflation expectations surveys were developed, though data limitations persist.
• Communication: Increased transparency through press conferences, Monetary Policy Guidelines, and regular publications to boost credibility.
• Legal and Regulatory: New laws on foreign exchange, payments, and banking were enacted, supporting reforms.

Key Challenges

• Structural Gaps: Despite progress, the economy remains constrained by limited market development, high dollarization (41-50% of deposits), state-dominated banking (82% of assets held by state-owned banks), and SOE inefficiencies.
• Transmission Mechanism: Interest rate transmission to retail rates is constrained. Variance decomposition in VAR models shows weak policy rate impact on inflation and exchange rates.
• Inflation Expectations: Households and firms overestimate inflation, complicating credibility. Structural factors like price reforms and exchange rate depreciation fuel inflation inertia.
• Central Bank Credibility: Gaps in independence and accountability remain, though scores on the Cukierman index increased from 0.38 in 2016 to 0.78 in 2021.

Recommendations

• Enhance Credibility: Strengthen central bank governance, ensure long-term board appointments, and improve transparency.
• Deepen Financial Markets: Establish market conventions, develop benchmark rates, and enhance FX market volatility.
• Reduce Dollarization: Implement measures like higher reserve requirements on foreign deposits, develop capital markets, and use macroprudential tools.
• Address State Dominance: Impose hard budget constraints on SOEs, reduce government intervention, and reform energy pricing.
• Improve Transmission: Focus on better risk management, market development, and coordination with fiscal policies.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan has advanced toward inflation targeting through institutional, legal, and operational reforms, but deeper structural changes are needed to enhance monetary policy effectiveness, particularly in financial markets, dollarization reduction, and state intervention. Progress is substantial, but continued efforts will be crucial for success.

[citation: Moayad Al Rasasi & Ezequiel Cabezon, 2022. "Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2022/229]