SWP-乌兹别克斯坦的转型（英文）-2020.9-36页_893kb

Summary of Uzbekistan's Transformation: Strategies and Perspectives

Core Content

This SWP Research Paper analyses the transformation of Uzbekistan under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who took office in December 2016 following the death of President Islam Karimov. The paper explores the nature of the reform agenda, the political and economic context, and the implications of these changes for Germany and Europe.

Main Points

1. The Presidential Transition and Reform Programme

• Smooth Transition: Mirziyoyev, a regime insider, succeeded Karimov in a peaceful transition, avoiding the power struggles and public unrest that were previously expected in authoritarian states.
• Reform Agenda: The reform programme aims to liberalise the economy and society while maintaining the political system intact. This represents a shift from the previous model of economic and political isolation.
• Central Control: Reforms are implemented centrally, reflecting Uzbekistan's historical preference for state planning. Society accepts these changes in the hope of improved living standards.

2. Political Liberalisation and Authoritarian Continuity

• Authoritarian Regime: Despite some political liberalisation, Uzbekistan remains an authoritarian state with a presidential system that is not open to reform or democratic change.
• "Enlightened Authoritarianism": The transformation is more likely to result in a form of "enlightened authoritarianism," where the old and new elites collaborate to maintain control while introducing some reforms.
• Continuity and Legacy: Mirziyoyev has emphasized continuity with Karimov's political legacy, particularly the "Uzbek development model," to ensure stability and legitimacy among the established elites.

3. Social and Economic Context

• Economic Autarky: Under Karimov, Uzbekistan was economically self-reliant, with strategic sectors like agriculture, energy, and mining controlled by the state.
• Rural Population: The rural population, which made up 40% of the total in 1989, had a low standard of living, which made radical reforms politically risky.
• Middle Class Emergence: A middle class, largely urban, emerged in the late 1990s, benefiting from economic growth and state investment. This class accepted the status quo and supported the reform agenda in exchange for economic benefits.

4. Implementation of Reforms

• Security Apparatus: The security system was reorganised and expanded, reinforcing state control. However, it also became involved in rent-seeking and corruption.
• Cadre Policy: Governance was modernised, and Mirziyoyev's long tenure as prime minister suggests his deep integration into the political system.
• Public Mobilisation: The government actively mobilised society for reform, framing it as a national project that requires collective participation and support.

5. Foreign Policy and International Cooperation

• Foreign Investment: The reform project has attracted foreign investment and loans, which are crucial for its implementation.
• International Expectations: The Uzbek government has aligned its development strategy with international donors' expectations, particularly in terms of good governance and liberal values.
• Cooperation Opportunities: Germany and Europe have opportunities to support Uzbekistan's reforms, especially in areas such as promoting political competition, open debate, and independent public engagement.

Key Information

• Reforms: Economic liberalisation, administrative modernisation, and social liberalisation are the main pillars of the reform agenda.
• Security and Corruption: The security apparatus plays a central role in the reform process, but it is also involved in corrupt practices and the extraction of rents.
• Legacy and Identity: Mirziyoyev has reinforced Karimov's legacy through symbolic acts such as the construction of a mausoleum in Samarkand, which integrates Karimov into the nation's historical narrative.
• Sustainability: The reforms are seen as a path to sustainability and development, but their success depends on the continued central control of the state and the cooperation of the elites.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan's transformation under Mirziyoyev represents a unique case in the post-Soviet space, where a peaceful transition and reform agenda coexist with the persistence of authoritarian structures. The reforms, while promising, are embedded in a system that remains resistant to full democratisation. For Germany and Europe, the reform process offers both challenges and opportunities, particularly in the realm of promoting an open society within an authoritarian framework.