IMF-乌兹别克斯坦与公私伙伴关系_国家经验教训_乌兹别克斯坦共和国（英）-2025.6_24页_899kb

Uzbekistan and Public-Private Partnerships: Country Lessons

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Uzbekistan, focusing on their growth, risks, and management strategies. It outlines the nature of PPPs, their benefits and drawbacks, and discusses the specific context of Uzbekistan, including its legal and institutional framework, the composition of PPP projects by sector, and the challenges associated with their implementation.

Main Viewpoints

• PPPs as a Tool for Public Investment: PPPs can leverage private sector expertise, risk sharing, and financing to improve public investment. However, they come with both project-level and macroeconomic risks.
• Risks in PPPs: These include project selection flaws, optimism bias, fiscal illusion, off-budget financing, and contract renegotiation. These risks can lead to inefficient use of resources, contingent liabilities, and increased fiscal burden.
• Risk Management Strategies: The document recommends integrating PPPs into public investment management systems, conducting scenario analysis, and setting caps on new and existing PPP projects to limit macroeconomic risks.
• Uzbekistan's PPP Growth: The country has seen rapid growth in PPPs, with the value of signed contracts reaching 27% of GDP by end-2024. The majority of these projects are concentrated in the energy sector.
• Legal and Institutional Framework: The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) plays a central role in PPP management, including fiscal risk assessment, project approval, and monitoring. Other entities such as the PPP Department and the Center for PPP Projects also support the process.

Key Information

PPPs in Uzbekistan

• Initial Growth: The first PPP projects began in 2018, before the PPP Law was enacted. By 2019, the value of signed PPPs was around 8% of GDP.
• 2024 Data: The value of signed PPPs reached USD 11 billion (10% of GDP), with total PPP value at USD 31 billion (27% of GDP). Direct and contingent liabilities were estimated at 15% of GDP.
• Sector Composition: From 2019 to 2024, over 90% of PPP value was in the energy sector. Transportation is expected to take a larger share in the future.
• Future Plans: Presidential Decree 308 outlines USD 30.2 billion in planned PPP projects for 2025-2030. If fully implemented, the stock of PPPs would reach 34% of GDP by 2026 and fall to 27.5% by 2030.

Risks from PPPs

• Explicit Risks: These include government guarantees, fixed-price obligations, and subsidies. They can lead to contingent liabilities and uncertain future cash flows.
• Implicit Risks: These are expectations that the government will provide financial support in case of project failure or bankruptcy.
• Project Selection Risks: Lack of a rigorous selection process can lead to less productive projects being approved.
• Optimism Bias: Overestimation of benefits and underestimation of costs can result in financial overruns and unmet demand projections.
• Fiscal Illusion: PPPs may appear cheaper in the short term but carry higher costs in the long term, especially when the government is the primary customer.
• Renegotiation Risks: Changes in construction costs, policy, regulated prices, and operating costs can lead to renegotiation of contracts, increasing complexity and financial burden.

Risk Management Recommendations

• Integrate PPPs into Public Investment Plans: Ensuring that PPPs are part of a centralized public investment management system.
• Scenario Analysis: Conducting stress tests to evaluate the impact of underperformance, exchange rate fluctuations, and cost overruns.
• Annual and Stock Caps: Implementing caps on new and existing PPP projects to manage macroeconomic risks.
• Robust Monitoring Systems: Establishing mechanisms to track PPP performance and fiscal obligations.
• Avoid Direct Negotiation: Restricting direct negotiations to prevent biased project selection and reduce the risk of unsolicited proposals.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan has made significant progress in adopting PPPs, but the country must continue to strengthen its institutional framework and risk management practices to ensure the long-term sustainability and efficiency of these projects. The lessons from other countries highlight the importance of transparency, rigorous selection, and careful monitoring to avoid the pitfalls associated with PPPs.