IEF-石油市场5月报比较分析（英）-2025_18页_330kb

Summary of Oil Market Context

Demand

• Global Oil Demand Growth (2025-2026):

  • OPEC projects year-on-year demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026.
  • The EIA projects a revision upward for 2025 to 1.0 mb/d (from 1.3 mb/d) but later revised this downward to 0.9 mb/d for 2026 compared to its previous forecast.
  • The IEA projects global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 0.8 mb/d in 2026.
  • Non-OECD regions drive the majority of demand growth, adding 1.2 mb/d annually.

• Regional Demand (2025):

  • OECD demand is expected to stabilize or decline slightly, with the IEA forecasting a 0.1 mb/d increase and OPEC projecting a 0.1 mb/d increase while the EIA reported a 0.3 mb/d decrease.
  • India and China are projected to increase consumption by 0.2 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively, in both years.
  • Non-OECD growth is forecasted at approximately 1.2 mb/d.

• Demand Forecast Gap: There is a gap of about 0.6 mb/d between agencies for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026.

Supply

• Global Oil Supply Growth (2025):
  • OPEC projects 0.9 mb/d growth for non-DoC liquids and DoC NGLs in 2025 and 2026.
  • The EIA projects non-OPEC supply growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025 (later revised down to 1.0 mb/d) and expects non-OPEC supply growth of 1.3 mb/d (unchanged).
  • Non-OPEC supply growth is primarily from the United States.

Summary of 2025 Balances

• 2025 Forecasts:

  • OPEC: Global demand growth at 1.3 mb/d.
  • IEA: Demand growth 0.7 mb/d; non-OECD demand growth 0.9 mb/d.
  • EIA: Non-OPEC supply growth 1.3 mb/d (for 2025).

• Divergences:

  • Demand forecasts vary with significant gaps reported by the agencies.
  • Supply forecasts also show divergence, especially in the Middle East and Brazil.

Forecast Revisions and Outlook

• 2026 Outlook: OPEC maintains demand growth at 1.3 mb/d y/y; the IEA projects demand growth 0.8 mb/d y/y, while EIA projects non-OECD growth 1.0 mb/d.
• Supply Changes: Non-OPEC supply growth is projected at 1.0 mb/d by IEA; EIA estimates 1.2 mb/d.

Key Takeaways

• There are significant differences in forecast scenarios between OPEC, IEA, and EIA for both demand and supply growth.
• Non-OECD regions contribute the most to demand growth.
• Supply growth is primarily driven by non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States.
• Agency forecasts show some alignment on non-DoC supply growth but differ on region-specific supply contributions, especially Middle East and Brazil.