20220715-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_3页_651kb

Market Summary

Core Content

The Hong Kong markets showed a narrow trading range on the previous day, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 20,751 points, down 46 points. The daily turnover amounted to HKD112.8 billion. The market focus remained on the issue of Chinese homebuyers suspending mortgage repayments, which has affected both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) banks and property developers.

Main Points

• Mortgage Repayment Suspension: Some homebuyers in lower-tier cities such as Henan, Hubei, and Hunan are urging others to suspend mortgage repayments, leading to resumed construction by developers. This is due to liquidity constraints faced by developers.
• Banking Sector Impact: SOE banks like BOC (3988 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), ABC (1288 HK), and CCB (939 HK) reached their 1-month lows. These banks have higher exposure to property-related loans, including those for projects under construction.
• Overall Risk in Banking System: It is estimated that c.RMB740 billion of loans may be at risk due to project delays. However, this accounts for less than 2% of the outstanding housing mortgage balance as of end-March 2022.
• Company Performance Highlights:
  • CNOOC (883 HK): Expected to report a 1H22E net profit of RMB70.5b-72.5b, a YoY increase of +112% to +118%.
  • Sunny Optical (2382 HK): Reported a profit alert, with a 1H22E net profit decline of 45% to 50% YoY to RMB1.34b-1.47b.
  • BYD Co. (1211 HK): Expected to report a 1H22E net profit increase of 138% to 206% YoY to RMB2.8b-3.6b.
  • Yankuang Energy (1171 HK): Released a positive profit alert, expecting a 1H22E net profit of RMB18b, a YoY increase of +198%.
• Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK): Expected to report a 1H22E net profit of RMB9.6b to RMB11.6b, a YoY increase of 11,000% to 13,420%, driven by increased sales volume and average selling prices of lithium products, along with the global boom in new energy vehicles and capacity expansion by battery manufacturers.
• Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Inventory levels increased to 1.4 months in June, while total order backlog remained stable at 200k units. The company expects production to rise to 150k units in August and September, with a sustained uptrend into 4Q22E. For 2H22E, monthly deliveries of Good Cat are expected to reach 10k units, and monthly run rates for Bullet Cat and Lightning Cat could reach 1-2k units and 4-5k units, respectively. Sales of WEY Mocha and Macchiato were weak in 1H22, but the company anticipates strong sales for Latte PHEV once it launches in late July.
• NagaCorp (3918 HK): The Cambodian government lifted the mandatory 7-day quarantine for unvaccinated travelers starting from 11 July 2022. Unvaccinated travelers now only need to take a rapid antigen test (RAT) upon arrival, costing USD5. This change is expected to benefit NagaCorp in the second half of 2022 as border policies ease and more international flights are added.
• Pou Sheng (3813 HK): Sales declined by 15% YoY in June, narrowing from 19% in May, and reached c.79% of 2019 levels, better than May's 69%. Anta Sports (2020 HK) also reported an improving trend in its 2Q22 trading update, with both Anta core and FILA showing progress despite slightly higher inventory levels. Pou Sheng had similar retail discount levels in June compared to the previous year, as the company started promotions in June 2021.

Key Information

• Market Sentiment: The market is cautious due to ongoing concerns over the mortgage repayment suspension issue.
• Sector Performance: The banking and property sectors are under pressure, while some companies in the energy and automotive industries are showing strong growth.
• Geopolitical and Policy Impact: The easing of travel restrictions in Cambodia is expected to positively impact tourism-related stocks such as NagaCorp.
• Risk Factors: The Dim Sum Daily provides general market commentary and does not constitute investment research or recommendations. It is based on data from various sources, and MIB Securities (HK) Ltd does not verify its accuracy. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisors.

Disclaimer

This document is for general circulation and information purposes only. It is not intended as investment research or a recommendation. MIB Securities (HK) Ltd does not independently verify the information and accepts no liability for any loss resulting from reliance on the contents. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice.