20220427-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_3页_166kb

Market Summary

Core Content

The Hong Kong stocks market showed mixed performance, with a rally in tech stocks offsetting the downward pressure from HSBC (5 HK). The Hang Seng Index closed slightly higher at 19,934 points, with a daily turnover of HKD122.7 billion. However, the market is expected to open around 400 points lower this morning due to the weak performance of U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq index, which hit a 52-week low amid a hawkish Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Key Market Trends

• Tech Sector Rally: Tech stocks were the main drivers of the market's advance.
• HSBC's Performance: HSBC released better-than-expected 1Q22 results, but its share price corrected due to the absence of an interim dividend and buyback announcement.
• Hang Seng Bank's Dividend: Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) declared a lower interim dividend of HKD0.7 per share compared to HKD1.1 per share in 1Q21, indicating weaker market conditions.
• Upcoming Company Results: Several major companies, including BYD Co. (1211 HK), HKEx (388 HK), China Life (2628 HK), and Angang Steel (347 HK), are set to release their 1Q22 results today.

Sector Analysis

China Coal

• Current Price Trends: The QHD5,500 blended coal price has remained flat for six consecutive weeks, while the spot price slightly declined to RMB1,163/t (-3.9% WoW).
• Inventory Levels: Average coal inventory at QHD increased by 5.9% WoW to 4.5mt, and coal IPPs' inventory in eight coastal provinces rose by 1.63% to 28.7mt.
• Price Outlook: Market expects coal prices to rebound in the short term due to Daqin railway maintenance starting on 2 May, and mid-to-long term contracts at RMB570-770/t will take effect in May. Prices are anticipated to gradually increase and stabilize in the second quarter of 2022.

Macau Gaming

• April GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 24 days of April was MOP2.1b, translating to an average daily run rate (ADR) of MOP83m, lower than both March and the previous week.
• Expected April GGR: Market forecasts April GGR to range between MOP2.5b and MOP2.8b, representing a decline of 24% to 32% MoM, the lowest level since the Macau-mainland China border reopened in September 2020.
• Travel Restrictions: The validity period of COVID-19 test results for entering Macau by land was extended to 72 hours from 25 April due to improved conditions in Guangdong. However, a recent outbreak in Beijing may dampen travel sentiment before the May Golden Week holiday, leading to limited GGR rebound.

China Property

• RMB Depreciation Impact: The RMB weakened by about 3% against the USD since 19 April, which has affected the property sector due to its USD/HKD debt exposure.
• Debt Exposure: Developers such as Yuzhou (1628 HK), Shimao (813 HK), Agile (3383 HK), KWG (1813 HK), Sino-Ocean (3377 HK), and CIFI (884 HK) have significant USD debt exposure.
• Policy Response: The PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio on FX deposits by 1 percentage point from 9% to 8% on 25 April, aiming to increase FX liquidity and reduce RMB depreciation pressure.
• Market Outlook: The property sector is expected to recover gradually as the pandemic eases, with developers anticipating a return to steady market development.

Company Highlights

HSBC (5 HK)

• 1Q22 Results: Reported profit before tax declined 27.9% YoY to USD4.2b, while profit after tax dropped 24.6% YoY to USD3.4b.
• Net Interest Margin: Improved to 1.26% (+5bps YoY).
• Dividend and Buyback: No interim dividend was declared, and no further buyback was announced, leading to a share price slump.
• Technical Support: The share price is expected to find support at its 250-day moving average (HKD46.10).

COLI (688 HK)

• 1Q22 Revenue: Increased by 5.7% YoY to RMB28.83b.
• Operating Profit: Rose by 15.8% YoY to RMB7.16b.
• Financial Position: Bank balance and cash stood at RMB114.7b as of 31 March.
• Net Gearing: At 43.1%.
• Sales Performance: Achieved contracted sales of RMB48.2b and sold 2.51m sq.m. of GFA.
• Land Acquisition: Acquired 6 land parcels with a total GFA of 78k sq.m.
• Market Outlook: COLI anticipates a return to steady real estate development as the pandemic situation improves.

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and does not constitute investment research or recommendations. It is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The information is based on data from recognized sources and is not independently verified. MIB Securities (HK) Ltd and its affiliates accept no liability for any reliance placed on the contents of this report. Investment in international markets carries risks including economic, political, and currency fluctuations, and limited information availability.