2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_Request_for_a_Three_97页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 17/100: Benin - Three-Year ECF Arrangement Summary

Core Content Overview

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Benin, amounting to SDR 111.42 million (US$ 151.03 million), which is 90% of Benin's quota. This arrangement is intended to support Benin's economic and financial reform program, which aims to address balance of payments needs, promote inclusive growth, and reduce poverty through increased public investment and improved fiscal and debt sustainability.

Main Objectives of the Program

• Create fiscal space by enhancing domestic revenue mobilization and improving the efficiency of government spending.
• Scale up investment gradually while maintaining absorptive capacity.
• Strengthen public debt management and pursue prudent borrowing policies.
• Promote private sector investment by improving institutions and the business environment.
• Ensure debt sustainability by keeping the present value of non-financial public sector debt to no more than 50% of GDP.

Key Policies and Reforms

• Fiscal reforms: The authorities aim to strengthen domestic revenue collection and improve the quality of spending. This includes modernizing the Tax and Customs Administrations and enhancing their efficiency and coordination.
• Financial intermediation: Efforts to operationalize a credit bureau and promote financial inclusion will support healthy credit expansion and private sector-led growth.
• Financial sector supervision: Implementing a harmonized regional resolution framework and strengthening the supervisory body for microfinance institutions (MFIs) will be critical.
• Business environment: Improving the business environment by reducing bottlenecks to private-sector development and promoting good governance and competitive procurement will help attract investment.
• Economic statistics: Enhancing the quality, coverage, and timeliness of economic statistics will improve policy-making.

Economic Performance and Outlook

Recent Developments (2015–2016)

• Growth: Benin's growth reached 4% in 2016, up from 2.1% in 2015, driven by improved agricultural output after adverse weather in 2015.
• Inflation: Inflation remained subdued in 2015 (less than 1%) and turned negative in 2016.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit (excluding grants) narrowed to 6.2% of GDP in 2016 from 8% in 2015, due to expenditure control and weak revenue performance.
• External Sector: The external current account deficit remained high in 2016, reflecting investment-related imports, but the overall balance of payments showed small surpluses in the financial account.

Medium-Term Projections

• Growth: Projected to rebound in 2017, mainly due to agriculture and public investment.
• Fiscal Deficit: Expected to converge to below 3% of GDP by 2019.
• Inflation: Projected to remain below the WAEMU threshold of 3%.
• Debt Service-to-Exports Ratio: Expected to decrease to 4.4% by 2022.

Program Summary

• The program is designed to support Benin's economic reform agenda and debt sustainability.
• It includes reforms in fiscal and public investment management, financial sector supervision, and business environment improvements.
• The overall fiscal deficit (excluding grants) is projected to decline from 8.6% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2016, and further to below 3% by 2019.
• The new program is consistent with achieving WAEMU convergence criteria by 2019, except for the revenue-to-GDP criterion.

Risks and Challenges

• Weak institutional capacity and resistance from vested interests could delay structural reforms and weaken private sector responses.
• Unforeseen contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may pose a risk.
• Further negative spillovers from Nigeria could affect economic performance if the expected recovery in 2017 does not materialize.

Supporting Documents

• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's approval of the ECF arrangement and highlights the economic and financial reforms.
• Staff Report: Details the program design and policy recommendations.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Assessing the debt sustainability of the program and the impact of borrowing.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Outlines the IMF's views on the program and its implementation.

Additional Documents

• Letter of Intent (LOI): Outlines the terms of the ECF arrangement.
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP): Sets out the policy framework for the program.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Details the technical aspects of the arrangement.

Background Information

• Benin joined the IMF on July 10, 1963.
• The IMF quota is SDR 123.80 million.
• The new government, led by President Patrice Talon, committed to fiscal and debt sustainability and economic structural transformation.
• A Government Action Program (GAP) for 2016–2021 was launched to improve living conditions through economic transformation.
• A Law on Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) was adopted to encourage private sector participation.

Key Statistics (2012–2022)

Conclusion

The ECF arrangement for Benin is a critical step toward economic stabilization, debt sustainability, and inclusive growth. It is aligned with the WAEMU convergence criteria and is expected to catalyze public and private investment. The program emphasizes institutional reforms, fiscal discipline, and improved governance to ensure long-term economic resilience and poverty reduction.