2008年-世界发展银行全球_The_Aftermath_of_Civil_War_23页_892kb

Summary of "The Aftermath of Civil War"

Core Content

This article analyzes the aftermath of civil war across 41 countries from 1960 to 2003 using an event-study methodology. It examines the economic, social, and political recovery following the end of conflict, comparing pre- and post-war conditions and tracking trends during the post-conflict period. The study also compares conflict countries with two types of control groups: non-conflict developing countries and regional control groups. The main findings suggest that, despite the devastating effects of war, recovery and improvement are possible when lasting peace follows conflict.

Main Views

• War's Impact: Civil wars have severe consequences, including loss of life, displacement, and destruction of infrastructure and social capital.
• Recovery Potential: When peace follows war, recovery is possible, though it may be gradual. Neoclassical growth models and historical examples (e.g., post-war Europe, Korea, and Vietnam) support this notion.
• Economic Recovery: Post-war economic performance, particularly GDP per capita and growth rates, tends to improve. The average GDP per capita growth rate increases by about 2.4 percentage points after the war.
• Social and Political Recovery: Social indicators such as infant and adult mortality rates decline, and educational enrollment improves. Political development, as measured by democracy indices and civil liberties, shows positive trends.
• Demographic Trends: Dependency ratios and gender ratios change, indicating a shift in population structure and social dynamics.
• Conflict and Security: The incidence of terrorist attacks is generally lower after the war, suggesting a reduction in conflict-related violence.

Key Information

Sample and Methodology

• The study includes 41 countries involved in internal wars, with at least 1,000 battle-related deaths per year.
• Six countries experienced two internal conflicts.
• The event-study methodology is used to compare pre- and post-war periods, transforming calendar time into "event time" to analyze common experiences.
• The pre-war period is defined as the 7 years before the war, and the post-war period as the 7 years after the war.
• The analysis is conducted both in absolute terms and relative to control groups.

Variables Analyzed

1. Economic Performance:

   • GDP per capita
   • GDP per capita growth rate
   • Investment share
   • Government expenditure
   • Military expenditure
   • Inflation rate

2. Health and Education:

   • Infant mortality
   • Adult mortality (male and female)
   • Primary and secondary school enrollment

3. Political Development:

   • Democracy and autocracy indices (Polity2)
   • Civil liberties and political rights
   • Law and order

4. Demographic Trends:

   • Old-age dependency ratio
   • Youth dependency ratio
   • Female-male ratio

5. Conflict and Security:

   • Incidence of terrorist attacks

Control Groups

• Developing-Country Control Group: Used to isolate the effects of war from global trends.
• Regional-Country Control Group: Used to match the level of development and capture regional effects.

Findings

• Economic Indicators:

  • GDP per capita is lower after the war.
  • GDP per capita growth rate is higher post-war, with a significant increase compared to control groups.
  • Investment share and government expenditure show recovery, while military expenditure declines.
  • Inflation rates decrease after the war.

• Social Indicators:

  • Infant mortality rates decrease significantly.
  • Adult mortality rates also decline, though the effect is less pronounced.
  • Primary and secondary school enrollment increases, indicating improved access to education.

• Political Indicators:

  • Democracy indices (Polity2) improve.
  • Civil liberties and political rights increase.
  • Law and order improves.

• Demographic Indicators:

  • Old-age dependency ratio decreases.
  • Youth dependency ratio decreases.
  • Female-male ratio shifts, indicating a possible change in population dynamics.

• Conflict Indicators:

  • The incidence of terrorist attacks declines after the war.

Methodological Notes

• The study uses fixed-effects regression to control for country-specific characteristics.
• The analysis excludes war years to focus on the post-conflict period.
• The event year is defined as the year following the end of conflict, with the last year before the war as event year -1.
• The study highlights the importance of using control groups to differentiate between war effects and broader global or regional trends.

Conclusion

The article concludes that while civil wars cause significant economic and social damage, the aftermath can lead to recovery and improvement, especially when lasting peace is achieved. The evidence supports the idea that post-war growth is above average and that various indicators show positive trends over time. The study encourages further analytical research on the specific mechanisms of recovery and the role of policy and aid in post-conflict societies.