2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Aftermath_of_the_2008_Global_Financial_Crisis_in_the_Eastern_Caribbean___The_Impact_on_the_St_Lucia_Labor_Market_46页_1mb

Summary of the Aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in the Eastern Caribbean: Impact on the St. Lucia Labor Market

Core Content

This document analyzes the long-term impact of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on the labor market and welfare in St. Lucia, a member of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). It highlights how the crisis affected employment, wages, and social welfare, particularly among the poor and vulnerable, and explores the structural challenges in the labor market that emerged during this period.

Main Findings

• Negative Impact on Employment: The 2008 crisis significantly increased unemployment in St. Lucia, which rose from 15.2% in 2008 to 23.3% in 2013, a 8.1 percentage point increase.
• Underemployment Rise: The underemployment rate, defined as working less than 35 hours per week, peaked at around 18% in late 2012 before declining to approximately 11% by late 2013.
• Demographic Dividend Not Fully Exploited: The labor force grew by 18% from 2003 to 2013, but the labor market could not absorb this growth, leading to higher unemployment and underemployment.
• Education and Employment: Workers with secondary education experienced a sharp rise in unemployment, while those with less than primary education remained employed but at lower wages. Workers who left the country were more educated than those who stayed.
• Formal Contracts Declined: The share of workers with formal (written) contracts decreased from 53.8% in 2011 to 49.3% in 2013. This decline was more pronounced in the public sector than the private sector.
• Sectoral Shifts: There was a noticeable shift in employment distribution, with a significant increase in self-employment and a decrease in formal employment, especially in the professional services and education, health, and social services sectors.
• Poverty Disparities: The poorest 40% of households were disproportionately affected by the crisis. Unemployment rates for the two poorest quintiles were nearly double those of the wealthiest quintiles by 2013.
• Economic Structure: St. Lucia's economy is heavily reliant on tourism, construction, agriculture, and financial services, all of which are sensitive to external demand. The crisis and subsequent natural disasters further weakened these sectors.
• High National Debt: St. Lucia's public debt to GDP ratio increased from 57% in the pre-crisis period to 80% in 2013, limiting the government's ability to invest in social programs and human capital.

Key Information

• Macroeconomic Context:

  • St. Lucia's GDP growth was milder than other OECS countries, averaging 1.9% before the crisis and 1.3% during the crisis period.
  • The OECS as a whole saw a decline in per-capita GDP during the crisis, with Antigua and Barbuda being the most affected.
  • The crisis led to a significant drop in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in tourism-related construction, which slowed economic activity.

• Labor Market Trends:

  • The working-age population increased by 3.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, while the employment-to-working-age-population ratio decreased by 2.9 percentage points.
  • The share of workers with more than one job fluctuated, peaking at 5.9% in 2012.
  • Social security coverage remained relatively stable at around 82% since 2011.

• Unemployment and Welfare:

  • Unemployment and underemployment had a significant negative impact on the welfare of St. Lucians, especially the poor.
  • The crisis affected the poorest households more than the wealthiest, exacerbating income inequality and reducing access to employment benefits.

• Sectoral Impact:

  • The tourism sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP and employment in the OECS, and 40% of GDP in St. Lucia, was severely impacted by the crisis.
  • Construction and agriculture also declined, leading to reduced employment opportunities and lower economic activity.
  • The decline in tourism receipts from traditional markets (US, UK, Canada) by 37% since 2008 contributed to the economic slowdown.

• Policy and Fiscal Challenges:

  • The government's fiscal policy aimed to support growth and employment but was constrained by high levels of national debt.
  • St. Lucia's fiscal deficit increased to 9.3% of GDP in 2012, though it was reduced to 5.7% by 2013/14 through fiscal consolidation efforts.
  • Natural disasters between 2010 and 2012 further compounded the economic and labor market challenges.

Structure

1. Introduction: Outlines the significant negative impact of the crisis on St. Lucia's labor market and welfare.
2. Macroeconomic Context: Discusses the economic performance of St. Lucia and the OECS during and after the crisis.
3. Labor Market Trends: Analyzes changes in employment structure, unemployment rates, and formal contract usage.
4. Impact on Unemployment, Wages, and Welfare: Details how the crisis disproportionately affected the poor and led to welfare decline.
5. Conclusion: Summarizes the key challenges and the need for policies to address the long-term effects of the crisis on the labor market.