20150812-Maybank_KERPL-Jul15__Increased_lending_to_CSFC_11页_652kb
报告摘要
China Banks Summary
Core Content
The document provides an analysis of the performance and trends in the Chinese banking sector as of July 2015, with a focus on monetary statistics, loan growth, and asset quality indicators. It also includes investment recommendations and financial summaries for major H-share banks.
Key Trends and Insights
Monetary Statistics
- M2 Growth: M2 growth rebounded for the third consecutive month in July 2015, reaching 13.3% YoY, surpassing the Bloomberg forecast of 11.7% YoY.
- Liquidity Injection: The rebound was driven by selective RRR cuts in late June, open market operations, and an increase in pledged supplementary lending (PSL).
- Deposit Changes: Retail and corporate deposits fell by CNY60b and CNY214b respectively in July 2015, while non-bank financial institutions (non-bank FIs) saw a surge of CNY1.8t MoM. This is attributed to government measures aimed at reviving the A-share market.
- Foreign Reserves: China's foreign reserves decreased by USD42.5b MoM, but this did not impact the M2 growth significantly.
Loan Growth
- Overall Loan Growth: Total loan growth in July 2015 was CNY1.48t MoM, down from CNY1.5t MoM in June 2015.
- Non-bank FIs: A significant portion of the loan growth was directed towards non-bank FIs, particularly China Securities Finance Corporation (CSFC), due to its reasonable yield and low credit risk.
- Individual & Corporate Loans: Growth in lending to individuals and corporates moderated to CNY275b and CNY313b MoM in July 2015, respectively, compared to CNY465b and CNY849b in June 2015.
- Loan Mix: Key loan growth drivers included medium-to-long-term individual loans (proxy for residential mortgages), medium-to-long-term corporate loans (proxy for infrastructure), and discounted bill finance. Banks remained cautious about SME loans and micro-finance.
- Aggregate Financing: Aggregate financing declined sharply to CNY0.7t in July 2015 from CNY1.9t in June 2015, indicating a more conservative approach towards risky shadow bank assets.
Asset Quality
- NPLs (Non-performing Loans): NPLs for all banks amounted to CNY109b in 2Q15, a decrease from CNY140b in 1Q15. This reflects a slower increase in non-performing loans.
- Provisioning Policy: The provision-to-loan ratio continued to rise, indicating a prudent approach to asset quality management.
- ROA and CAR: ROA remained stable, while the total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) showed a slight decline, but banks maintained strong capital positions.
Investment Recommendations
- Overall Rating: Maintain OVERWEIGHT for the banking sector.
- Specific Banks:
- BUY: China Construction Bank (CCB), China Qianhai Rubber Bank (CQRB)
- HOLD: Bank of China (BOC), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
- SELL: China Minsheng Banking Corporation (CMSB)
Financial Summary (as of 11 Aug 2015)
| Bank | BB Code | Rating | SP (HKD) | TP (HKD) | Upside (%) | Net Profit (CNYm) 2014 | Net Profit (CNYm) 2015F | Net Profit (CNYm) 2016F | PER 2014 | PER 2015F | PER 2016F | P/BV 2014 | P/BV 2015F | P/BV 2016F | ROE (%) 2014 | ROE (%) 2015F | ROE (%) 2016F | Yield (%) 2014 | Yield (%) 2015F | Yield (%) 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC | 1288 HK | BUY | 3.50 | 4.70 | 34.3 | 179,461 | 185,608 | 205,342 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 17.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| BOC | 3988 HK | HOLD | 4.21 | 4.80 | 14.0 | 169,595 | 168,927 | 186,341 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| BOCOM | 3328 HK | HOLD | 6.84 | 7.10 | 3.8 | 65,850 | 63,438 | 68,392 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| BOCQ | 1963 HK | BUY | 6.89 | 8.85 | 28.4 | 2,827 | 3,135 | 4,251 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 19.2 | 16.0 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| CCB | 939 HK | BUY | 6.32 | 7.80 | 23.5 | 227,830 | 243,204 | 269,934 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 19.7 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| CMB | 3968 HK | HOLD | 21.65 | 20.10 | (7.2) | 55,919 | 63,900 | 77,823 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 19.3 | 18.8 | 19.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 |
| CMSB | 1988 HK | SELL | 8.94 | 8.05 | (10.0) | 44,546 | 42,555 | 50,023 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 20.3 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| CNCB | 998 HK | HOLD | 5.55 | 6.00 | 8.2 | 40,692 | 43,704 | 51,193 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 16.8 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| CQRB | 3618 HK | BUY | 5.83 | 8.40 | 44.0 | 6,793 | 8,493 | 10,353 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 17.5 | 19.1 | 20.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| HUSB | 3698 HK | BUY | 3.70 | 4.40 | 18.9 | 5,673 | 6,339 | 7,702 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 16.7 | 16.4 | 17.7 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 7.0 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | HOLD | 5.34 | 6.10 | 14.2 | 275,811 | 274,362 | 300,225 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 19.9 | 17.3 | 16.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 |
Analysts
- Steven ST Chan: (852) 22680645, stevenchan@kimeng.com.hk
- Ning Ma: (852) 22680672, ningma@kimeng.com.hk
Figures and Tables
- Figure 1: Shows QoQ loan growth and loan mix for various periods.
- Figure 2: Depicts trade balance, change in foreign reserves, and USD/RMB NDF rate.
- Figure 3: Includes RMB deposit change, PBOC liquidity management, and SHIBOR.
- Figure 4: Summary of key items of aggregate social financing.
- Figure 5: M2 growth and change in China's foreign reserves.
- Figure 6: RMB MoM loan growth and M2 YoY growth.
- Figure 7: RMB loan and deposit growth.
- Figure 8: Key asset quality indicators, ROA, and CAR.
- Figure 9: Summary of 1Q15 results for H-share banks.
- Figure 10: Additional profitability and financial metrics.
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