20150721-Maybank_KERPL-1Q_performance_an_aberration_11页_792kb

报告摘要

1Q Performance: Considered an aberration due to higher credit costs.
Loan Growth: Weak at 10% YoY, primarily due to subdued corporate and gold loans.
CASA Ratio: Improved to 31.3%, up 50bps. Savings account growth was strong.
NPLs: 1Q fresh additions were INR3.2b, driven by one large account of INR1.3b.
Credit Cost: Higher in 1Q due to conservative provisioning (50% on bad loans), leading to lower earnings.
Expectations:
- Loan growth to rebound to 17-18% in FY16-17.
- Credit cost to normalize to 60bps in FY16-17.
- NIM to increase to 3.2% as loan mix shifts towards retail and SME.
- Provision coverage ratio remains strong at 80%.

Metric	FY13A	FY14A	FY15A	FY16E	FY17E
Operating Income (INR m)	26,390.9	29,224.7	32,587.1	38,379.9	44,293.7
Pre-Provision Profit (INR m)	14,595.5	14,804.0	16,277.8	20,533.6	24,612.5
Core Net Profit (INR m)	8,381.6	8,389.0	10,057.5	11,502.4	13,834.3
Core EPS Growth (%)	7.9	0.1	19.7	14.4	20.3
Core P/E (x)	14.4	14.4	12.1	10.5	8.8
P/BV (x)	1.9	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.3
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	2.3
Book Value (INR)	37	41	45	50	57
ROAE (%)	13.9	12.6	13.7	14.1	15.1
ROAA (%)	1.3	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3

CASA Ratio: Improved to 31.3%, up 50bps.
Savings Accounts: Grew 19% YoY.
Total Deposits: 16.7% YoY growth.
Deposit Mix: Savings increased to 26.2%, while time deposits slightly decreased.

NIM: Dropped by 10bps YoY to 3.12% due to interest income reversals.
Credit Costs: Expected to drop to 60bps in FY16-17 as most stress is already recognized.
Gross NPLs: Deteriorated to 2.59% in 1Q16.
Net NPLs: Increased to 0.98% in 1Q16, up from 0.7% last year.
Outstanding Restructured Loans: INR30b or 6.1% of total loans.
Provision Coverage Ratio: Strong at 80%, indicating good asset quality.

Valuation: Attractive at 1.3x FY17F P/BV, with 15% ROE.
Revenue Growth: Expected to pick up in the rest of FY16 as loans recover and NIM improves.
Future Growth: Loan growth forecasted at 17-18% for FY16-17.
P/BV: Expected to decrease to 1.3x, suggesting potential for value appreciation.

Operating Profit: Declined by 21.7% QoQ to INR3,672m.
Cost-Income Ratio: Increased to 54.0%, indicating higher operating costs.
Net Interest Margin: Dropped to 3.12%, but expected to improve.
Liquidity Ratio: Loans to deposits ratio at 68.7%, slightly lower than previous quarters.
Capital Adequacy: Tier 1 capital at 14.4%, CAR at 15.1%.

Performance: 1Q was a soft start, but the bank is expected to gain momentum in the rest of FY16.
Loan Growth: Expected to rebound to 17-18% in FY16, with a shift towards retail and SME.
Asset Quality: NPLs are expected to stabilize as most stress is already recognized.
Valuation: Attractive at 1.3x FY17F P/BV, with strong provision coverage.
Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of INR90, based on 1.6x FY17F P/BV.
Outlook: Positive with improved CASA ratio, stable retail loans, and expected improvement in NIM.

展开完整摘要