20220831-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_Outlook_for_ASEAN_Towards_a_Regional_Energy_Transition_2nd_Edition_128页_12mb

Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN: Key Summary

Introduction and Overview

The report outlines pathways for ASEAN to transition towards renewable energy by 2050, aligning with the 1.5°C climate goal. ASEAN faces rapid economic growth and increasing energy demand, making energy transition critical for sustainability and security. Key recommendations include: enhancing renewable energy deployment (e.g., solar PV, wind, bioenergy), promoting energy efficiency, electrifying end-use sectors, and improving regional power grid integration.

Methodology

The analysis uses REmap and PLEXOS modeling tools to simulate three scenarios:

• Planned Energy Scenario (PES): Business-as-usual with limited policy action.
• Transforming Energy Scenario (TES): Ambitious transition with 90% renewable power by 2050.
• 1.5°C Scenario (1.5-S): Strong decarbonization, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 with up to 100% renewable power.

Key Findings

• ASEAN’s renewable energy share in final energy consumption is projected to increase from 19% in 2018 to 65% by 2050 in the 1.5-S scenario.
• Electricity demand will fivefold by 2050, driven by electrification in buildings, transport, and industry. Renewables will dominate, with solar PV playing a central role.
• Energy-related CO₂ emissions could be reduced by 75% by 2050 under the 1.5-S, compared to current policies.
• Bioenergy and hydrogen will complement electricity for hard-to-electrify sectors, contributing up to 19% of total final energy by 2050.
• International cooperation and grid expansion are vital for regional energy security and cost-effectiveness.

Investment Needs and Costs

• Total investment in the 1.5-S scenario ranges from USD 6.3 trillion to USD 7.3 trillion by 2050, with solar PV needing USD 15–240 GW of new capacity.
• Cost savings of USD 508–1.58 trillion by 2050 due to reduced fuel costs and externalities, making the transition economically viable.

Conclusion and Immediate Actions

ASEAN must accelerate policies, investments, and innovation to achieve its energy transition goals. Priorities include:

• Electrifying transport and buildings with EVs and efficient appliances.
• Scaling up renewable energy generation, particularly solar and wind.
• Strengthening regional power grid integration and developing storage solutions.
• Implementing energy efficiency measures to reduce overall energy consumption by 20–27%, driven by renewables and hydrogen.