20160229-IRENA-REmap_Roadmap_for_A_Renewable_Energy_Future_2016_edition_172页_10mb

Renewable Energy Roadmap: A Global Plan to Double Renewable Energy by 2030
IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency)

1. Introduction

Renewable energy deployment is at an all-time high, with record investments in 2015.
But challenges persist: limited renewable share in transport, industry, and heating; market distortions; and inadequate accounting for externalities.
This roadmap outlines actionable solutions to double the renewable energy share in the global energy mix by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement climate goals.

2. Executive Summary

Key Findings:

• Doubling Renewable Energy Share: Achieving a 36% renewable share in 2030 is feasible and cost-effective, with savings ranging from USD 1 trillion to USD 4.2 trillion annually in 2030.
• Sector Potential: Power sector leadership, but buildings, industry, and transport lag significantly.
• Investment Needs: USD 130–330 billion/year required for renewable deployment by 2030.
• Health & Climate Benefits: Avoid up to 4 million deaths from air pollution and reduce CO₂ emissions by 10–25 Gt/year.

3. Roadmap to Doubling Renewable Energy

a. Key Action Areas

• Market Correction: Reform policies to price externalities (e.g., carbon taxes, cleaner energy pricing).
• Grid Integration: Strengthen grids, promote sector coupling (electricity-heat-transport), and deploy energy storage.
• Bioenergy: Ensure sustainable supply chains and international trade.
• R&D & Innovation: Fund breakthroughs like advanced biofuels, materials science, and batteries.
• Universal Access: Expand off-grid renewables and modern cookstoves to reach 1 billion people.

b. Sector-Specific Solutions

• Power: Solar and wind quadruple deployment; grid flexibility through demand-response and storage.
• Buildings & Industry: Electrification, heat pumps, and modern cooking solutions.
• Transport: 10% EV penetration by 2030; advanced biofuels for aviation and shipping.

4. Methodology & Data

• REmap Approach: 40 countries (80% global energy demand) analyzed via spreadsheets.
• Key Metrics: Substitution costs, investment curves, externality assessments.
• Data Sources: IEA, UN, national plans, and IRENA expert collaboration.

5. Challenges & Recommendations

Barriers:

• Pricing Distortions: Fossil fuel subsidies and lack of carbon pricing.
• Investment Risks: Unclear policies and financing gaps in developing countries.
• Technological Gaps: High costs for storage and advanced biofuels.

Policy Actions:

• Short-Term: Carbon pricing, auctions, and green finance mechanisms.
• Long-Term: R&D partnerships, education on renewable viability, and sustainable feedstock sourcing.

6. Conclusion

Doubling renewable energy by 2030 is an achievable, economically and environmentally sound goal.
Requires coordinated global effort, innovation, and immediate policy action to limit climate change and improve human health.

7. For Further Reading

• IRENA REmap 2030 reports on individual countries.
• Joint Initiatives: Mission Innovation, Breakthrough Energy Coalition.
• Resources: www.irena.org/remap

Appendices:

• Detailed methodology and data for cost assessments.
• Case studies on renewable deployment (e.g., Morocco’s Noor-Ouarzazate CSP plant).
• Global renewable energy trends (2016–2050).