20230711-国盛证券-朝闻国盛_5页_511kb

Report Summary: Analysis from July 11, 2023

• Macro Economic Trends: Prices continue to show weak performance, with CPI and PPI remaining low due to insufficient demand and confidence. Expect some stabilization in the coming months, but economic growth still faces pressure from weak domestic factors and limited policy support, focusing on structural measures rather than strong stimulus.

• Financial Engineering Insights: The stock-bond correlation is positive this month, with equity rebound contributing to convertible bond gains. Focus on sectors like auto, consumer goods, and textiles, while cautioning about potential model risks if market conditions change.

• Fixed Income Analysis: Low inflation points to high real interest rates; longer-term bonds may offer better value amid uncertain inflation outlooks.

• Pharmaceutical Assessment: Proteomics company Up-Med is highlighted as a leader in domestic culture medium production, with potential through import substitution and international expansion.

• Industry Forecasts:

  • Light Manufacturing: Q2 performance expected to improve due to export recovery; stable growth in areas like home furnishings, with recommendations for companies like KingHome and orders.
  • Environment: Industrial green upgrading proceeds with carbon reduction goals; recycling resources present growth opportunities.
  • Basic Chemicals: High-frequency resin materials offer investment potential amid evolving market dynamics.
  • Textiles and Apparel: Focused on single-store efficiency and same-store growth, with solid performance for the sector.
  • Computer: Kingsoft Interactive shows strong Q2 growth driven by AI models and innovation.

• Additional Notes: Overall, key themes include demand recovery in certain exports, ongoing challenges in consumer-facing and real estate sectors, and anticipation of policy releases to support economic fundamentals.