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Geopolitical Context and Nearshoring: Exploring Supply Chain Opportunities in Mexico

Overview

This report by BBVA Research examines the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on global supply chains, emphasizing opportunities for Mexico in nearshoring and manufacturing. Key themes include rising geopolitical tensions, trade shifts, and Mexico's competitive advantages.

Geopolitical Context and Risks

• Geopolitical factors are driving economic changes, with increased conflicts and disruptions (e.g., US-China tensions, Ukraine-Russia war, and regional disputes) creating both risks and local opportunities.
• These tensions lead to supply chain vulnerabilities, prompting a move toward nearshoring and friendshoring to reduce reliance on distant partners.
• Climate change, digitalization, demographics, and polarization exacerbate the "new" geopolitical rivalry, involving leverage through trade, military, and resources.
• Trade has shifted from hyperglobalization to "slowbalization," with increasing protectionism and fragmentation risks.

Supply Chain and Nearshoring Opportunities

• US foreign policy increasingly prioritizes security and diversification over efficiency, driving policies like "friendshoring" and de-risking.
• Mexico is positioned to benefit from nearshoring, as seen in 2018-2023 data showing it surpassed China as the top US trade partner.
• Key sectors for opportunity include Computer and Electronic Products, Machinery, Transportation Equipment, and high-tech manufacturing.
• West-central states, such as Jalisco, have potential due to their expertise in electronics and STEM labor supply.

Mexican Manufacturing Competitiveness

• Mexico ranks highly in global manufacturing, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in sectors like Computer and Electronic Products, Chemical Manufacturing, and Machinery.
• Manufacturing growth in Mexico could be higher if it captured lost Chinese production due to US-China trade wars, potentially adding up to 1.8% annually.
• Transportation is a growth area, but facing credit slowdown except for trucking.

Regional Investment and FDI

• Investment in Mexico's industrial parks is increasing, with FDI from the US, Spain, and Germany leading.
• Opportunities are concentrated in Mexico's Northwest and Northeast regions, close to US markets.
• By 2023, 20% of new firms in AMPIP parks were from Asia, indicating moderate nearshoring effects.

Credit Markets and Support

• BBVA Research highlights its significant market share in manufacturing credit, with low non-performing loan ratios, supporting local industry.
• Climate policies in the US and EU are potential catalysts for investment but involve divergent approaches and costs.

Key Takeaways

• Mexico stands to gain from global supply chain reconfiguration through nearshoring, leveraging its strategic location, labor, and manufacturing base.
• Geopolitical risks could permanently alter growth drivers, necessitating proactive policies from Mexico to capitalize on opportunities.