20250704-招商期货-工业硅多晶硅2025年中期投资策略_基本面弱势格局延续_关注下半年政策动向_21页_1mb

Demand Overview:
Polymers are expected to support PV after policy-driven rapid growth this year, which will likely decline slightly in 2025 due to market uncertainties. Organic silicon sector faces weak demand; production is projected to decrease by 10% due to price issues, with monitoring for potential policy changes. Aluminum alloy consumption is stable amid auto scrapping policies. Export volume is expected to decrease due to tariffs.

Supply Dynamics:
Industrial silicon supply is likely to increase in H2, reaching 200-220万吨, while polysilicon production will peak in the third quarter before contracting.

Market Outlook:
H2 price projections include industrial silicon at ¥7000-9000/吨 and polysilicon at ¥30000-42000/吨.

Trading Strategy:
Single-side positions propose surveillance for industrial silicon and a cautious long position for polysilicon based on demand recovery hopes. Cross-commodity strategies should focus on increasing the PS/Si ratio.

Risks:
Key risks stem from any unexpected output reductions or changes in supply-side policies.