20160104-三星证券-Start-of-year_effect_to_be_short-lived_16页_1mb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary - January 2016

Core Content

This document outlines the performance of the Samsung Model Portfolio in December 2015 and the strategic adjustments made for January 2016. It provides insights into the performance of the portfolio relative to the Kospi index and details the changes in sector exposure and stock selection based on 4Q earnings expectations and market trends.

Main Points

Portfolio Performance vs. Kospi

Note: The portfolio underperformed the Kospi in the 1-month and 6-month periods, but outperformed in the 3-month timeframe.

January Outlook

• Kosdaq Rally: A technical rally is expected in the Kosdaq due to the end-of-year/start-of-year effect.
• Kospi Performance: The Kospi is expected to range between 1,950 and 2,080 in January.
• Foreign Capital Outflows: These are expected to ease as the rate hike uncertainty dissipates and the technical rebound occurs.
• Earnings Outlook: 4Q15 MSCI Korea operating profit is expected to be KRW28.2t, slightly below 3Q15 but showing strong year-over-year growth.
• Sector Earnings: Energy, construction, auto & auto parts, media, and pharmaceuticals sectors have seen improved earnings, while retail and IT have seen cuts.

Key Portfolio Changes

• Increased Exposure:
  • Consumer staples by 2% pts to 9%
  • Healthcare by 3% pts to 3%
• Decreased Exposure:
  • Industrial goods by 1% pt to 9%
  • Financials by 3% pts to 12%
  • IT by 1% pt to 27%
• Stock Additions:
  • LG Corporation
  • AmoreG
  • Hyundai Glovis
  • Mode Tour Network
  • Donga ST
  • SFA Engineering
  • NCsoft
• Stock Removals:
  • CJ Corporation
  • Hotel Shilla
  • SK Corporation
  • Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
  • Cosmax
  • Samsung Electronics (preferred shares)

Key Changes in Portfolio Weightings

Active Risk Analysis

• The active risk in December was managed by adjusting the portfolio weightings in line with the Kospi.
• The model portfolio's beta was maintained at 1.05.

Performance of Added and Removed Stocks

Added Stocks

Removed Stocks

Conclusion

The Samsung Model Portfolio is strategically adjusted for January 2016, with increased exposure to consumer staples and healthcare, and decreased exposure to industrial goods, financials, and IT. The portfolio is expected to benefit from the anticipated technical rebound in the Korean markets, driven by the end-of-year/start-of-year effect and improved 4Q earnings. The outlook suggests that while the Kosdaq may experience a short-lived rally, the Kospi is expected to outperform in the long term due to stronger earnings momentum.