2025-05-20-Jefferies-史密斯集团（SMIN）_初步观点史密斯集团-_2025年第三季度交易更新_7页_114kb

报告摘要

Rating and Price Target: HOLD at £1,930 per share (equivalent to $9.5B market cap). The analysis concludes with a HOLD recommendation, noting recent strong growth but cautioning on operational gearing and margin pressures.
Growth Performance: Smiths delivered robust operating company segment (OCC) sales growth of 10.6% for 3Q25, within the 6-8% annual guidance. Divisions like Detection contribute significantly, while others face tariff challenges indirectly.
Divisional Breakdown:
- Detection & John Crane: Strong sales driven by aviation and industrial markets.
- Flex-Tek and Interconnect: Facing operational hurdles; Flex-Tek's construction sector outperformed the US housing market initially, but Interconnect's exit is on track.
- Overall, good growth but limited operational gearing noted, with tariff impacts seen as uncertainties.
Outlook: Management expects top-end 6-8% revenue growth and 40-60 basis points of margin expansion in the FY25F. Tariff impacts are acknowledged but not expected to be major, pending order backlog momentum.
Strategic Actions: Proceeding with divestitures of Interconnect and Detection units for stand-alone operations, which are deemed key to shareholder value creation.
Valuation and Risks: Valuation targets based on SOTP and EV/EBITA models highlight risks including global macro slowdown, slower OCC growth, integration risks, and raw material inflation. Market cap is £7.1B/USD $9.5B, with target set at £1,930.