2025-05-20-Jefferies-卡德勒（CADLR）_初步观点第一季度未达预期但2025财年指引不变_最终投资决定（FID）后的积压订单达100_7页_116kb

Cadeler Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights

• Unchanged First View: Cadeler's 1Q25 performance missed consensus due to lower revenue and EBITDA, primarily from reduced utilisation. However, FY25 guidance remains steady at €278-318m EBITDA and €485-525m revenue.
• Rating and Target: Rated BUY with a price target of NOK85.00, representing a 66% upside from NOK51.20.
• Backlog: Strong order book of €2.5bn (€2bn firm/€0.5bn options), now 100% related to projects with positive FID.
• Financial Performance: 1Q25 saw net profit of €2m vs. consensus €13m, EBITDA €24m vs. €41m, and revenue €65m vs. €80m. Utilisation rate was 55.3%, below JEFe's 60%, due to maintenance and transit periods.
• Outlook: The outlook is strong with robust contracts, healthy liquidity, and growth potential.
• Valuation and Risks: Valued via EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.2x, risks include delays in newbuilds and projects leading to revenue declines.

Detailed Summary

Cadeler provides installation, operation, and maintenance services for offshore wind through its vessel fleet. First-quarter 2025 results showed an in-line but slightly negative performance, with EBITDA and revenue below expectations mainly due to a lower utilisation rate. Nevertheless, the full-year 2025 guidance was unchanged, reflecting confidence in future growth. The current rating is BUY, with a price target set at NOK85.00, based on a favourable valuation and strong backlog. Key risks involve potential delays in construction or project execution.