20140407-新鸿基金融集团-Our_Best_Ideas_Post_2013_Results_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Our Best Ideas Post 2013 Results"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the financial performance of Hong Kong-listed companies in 2013 and outlines key investment recommendations for 2014. It includes a detailed breakdown of earnings surprises by sector, growth trends, and share price performance, along with specific company highlights and analyst ratings.

Main Points

Earnings Surprises

Overall Performance: Of the nearly 1,200 Hong Kong-listed companies that released full-year 2013 results, 50% beat sales expectations and 49% beat EPS forecasts.
Sector Analysis:
- Financials showed the most positive surprises, with 66% beating top line estimates and 57% beating bottom line expectations.
- Consumer Staples and Energy had the highest percentage of misses on top and bottom lines, respectively.
- 65% of the beats/misses resulted in share price increases/decreases.

Growth Trends

Top Line Growth: Aggregate sales grew by 12.8% in 2013, up from 8.5% in 2012 and 23.8% in 2011.
Bottom Line Growth: Earnings grew by 14% in 2013, improving from -5.2% in 2012 and 13.5% in 2011.
Key Sectors: Technology, industrials, materials, and financials showed better momentum in growth.

Share Price Performance

HSI Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) was down 3.2% year-to-date (YTD), while the MSCI All World Index rose 1.7% and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 2.2%.
Outperforming Sectors: Technology outperformed, while Telecom and Financials were the biggest decliners.

Investment Recommendations

Consumer Demand and Income Growth:
- Companies that benefit from government policy transferring wealth to consumers are preferred.
- Recommended companies: Haier, REXLot, and Wynn.
Infrastructure Spending:
- The China State Council's focus on rail and urban infrastructure spending is expected to boost demand.
- Recommended companies: Anhui Conch, BBMG, CRCC, and CSCI.
U.S. Recovery Exposure:
- Companies with exposure to a U.S. economic recovery are favored.
- Recommended company: Techtronic.

Key Company Highlights

Anhui Conch (914.HK)

Sector: Materials
Analyst: Stuart Chen
Rating: Buy
Target Price: HK$36.70
Performance: FY13 EPS increased by 48% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB1.77, in line with consensus. Net profit rose 48% YoY to RMB9,389m, and revenue increased 21% YoY to RMB55,262m.
Growth Drivers: Strong shipment growth (22% YoY) and ongoing capacity expansion. Management increased capex to RMB8.5bn in FY14.
Financials: Net debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 32% in FY12 to 27% in FY13.
Risks: Slower-than-expected FAI growth and liquidity tightening.

Techtronic (669.HK)

Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Analyst: Vik Chopra
Rating: Buy
Target Price: HK$24.25
Performance: FY13 sales increased by 11.6% to US$4,300 million, surpassing estimates and consensus. The company beat EPS expectations by 4.3%.
Growth Drivers: Strong performance in Power Equipment and Floor Care & Appliances, margin expansion, and geographic expansion.
Risks: Slower margin improvement, weaker U.S. and European growth, and accelerating commodity inflation.

REXLot (555.HK)

Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Analyst: Nicholas Studholme-Wilson
Rating: Buy
Target Price: HK$1.70
Performance: REXLot missed expectations in FY13 due to weak mobile growth and POS business in the second half of 2013.
Growth Drivers: Expected to benefit from improved performance and new product launches.
Risks: Continued weak performance in mobile and POS segments.