20140407-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary - 7 April 2014

Core Content Overview

This daily note provides a summary of the Hong Kong and global stock market performance, key economic data, and specific stock analysis for COSL (2883.HK) and Weigao (1066.HK). It also includes market data, ETF performance, and information on companies listed on both the A-share and H-share markets.

Main Market Movements

U.S. Market:
- Dow Jones: Fell 159 points, closing at 16,412.
- S&P 500: Fell 23 points, closing at 1,865.
- NASDAQ: Fell 110 points, closing at 4,127.
- The decline was led by biotech and dotcom stocks, with Tencent (700.HK) falling approximately 4% in the Hong Kong market.
- Gold prices rose due to the U.S. disappointing job data, with New York gold futures ending $18.90 higher at $1,303.50/oz.
- Crude oil prices were supported by concerns over Libya's ability to resume exports.
Hong Kong Market:
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 22,510, down 55 points, or 0.2%, with HSCEI at 10,110, up 16 points or 0.2%.
- Market turnover was HK$62bn, with HSI down 4.0% and HSCCI down 21.1%.
- The HSI was capped by the 100-day MA, indicating possible short-term consolidation and a potential test at 22,200.
- HKEx (388.HK) surged 4.4%, but no progress was made in mutual market connectivity with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- Brokerages were mixed, with Guotai Junan (1788.HK) down 4.9% and Shenyin Wanguo (218.HK) up 3.8%.

Stock Analysis

COSL (2883.HK)

Current Price: HK$19.40
Target Price: HK$22.00
Stop Loss: HK$17.80
Key Points:
- The stock is supported by CNOOC's capex growth, which is expected to increase to RMB105bn to RMB120bn in FY14.
- The company has expanded its production capacity with new drilling rigs and is enhancing deep-water services through a partnership with Schlumberger.
- It may pursue M&A in the unconventional natural gas sector for technological improvements.
- Net profit rose 47% yoy to RMB6.72bn in FY13, and the stock is currently trading at 9.9X FY14E P/E, which is below the three-year average of 10.8X.
- The stock has formed a bottom at HK$18.00, and rallied beyond the 20-day MA with a target of HK$22.00.

Weigao (1066.HK)

Current Price: HK$8.20
Target Price: HK$9.30
Stop Loss: HK$7.50
Key Points:
- The company is a medical device supplier, with single-use medical devices accounting for ~77% of revenue in 2013.
- Net profit fell 61% yoy to RMB390mn in FY13, but after adjusting for the loss from stake disposal, it increased ~9.9% to RMB937mn.
- The company is working on sales channel integration and has a strong presence in hospitals.
- Gross margin increased 1.8% yoy to 59.1%, and R&D expenses rose 22% yoy, accounting for 4.5% of total revenue.
- FY14 adjusted net profit is expected to increase ~36% to RMB1.16bn, with the stock trading at 25X FY14E P/E, below the five-year average of 30X.
- The stock has defended at the top of the up-gap, and pulled back ~27% from its peak.

Economic Data and Events

Date	Country/Region	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
Mon 7 Apr	Australia	ANZ Job Advertisements MoM	Mar	--	5.1%
Tue 8 Apr	Japan	BoP Current Account Balance	Feb	--	-¥1589.0B
Tue 8 Apr	U.K.	Industrial Production MoM	Feb	--	0.1%
Tue 8 Apr	U.K.	Manufacturing Production MoM	Feb	--	0.4%
Wed 9 Apr	Australia	Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM	Apr	--	-0.7%
Wed 9 Apr	U.S.	Wholesale Inventories MoM	Feb	0.5%	0.6%
Thu 10 Apr	Japan	Machine Orders MoM	Feb	--	13.4%
Thu 10 Apr	Australia	Unemployment Rate	Mar	--	6.0%
Thu 10 Apr	U.K.	Bank of England Bank Rate	Apr 10	0.5%	0.5%
Fri 11 Apr	U.S.	Initial Jobless Claims	Apr 5	--	--
Fri 11 Apr	China	Exports YoY	Mar	5.0%	-18.1%
Fri 11 Apr	China	Imports YoY	Mar	4.3%	10.1%
Fri 11 Apr	China	Trade Balance	Mar	-$0.90B	-$22.99B

Major Index Valuations and Estimated Earnings Growth

Index	FY14E P/E	Long-term avg. Fwd P/E	Deviation from avg. (%)	FY1 EPS growth (%)	FY2 EPS growth (%)
HSI	10.3	12.4	-16.3	2.1	8.7
HSCEI	6.9	10.3	-32.5	7.2	8.8
Shanghai Composite	8.0	13.3	-39.9	27.7	14.5
S&P 500	15.9	14.3	11.5	8.1	11.4

Market Data

Best Performers (1D)

HKEx (388.HK): +2.9%, Turnover: HK$1,728.7m
CITIC Bank (998.HK): +2.7%, Turnover: HK$305.5m
China Unicom (762.HK): +2.6%, Turnover: HK$471.3m
Li & Fung (494.HK): +1.7%, Turnover: HK$287.6m
CNOOC (883.HK): +1.7%, Turnover: HK$1,050.0m

Worst Performers (1D)

Tencent (700.HK): -3.9%, Turnover: HK$5,017.5m
Franshion Properties (817.HK): -3.6%, Turnover: HK$14.2m
China Taiping (966.HK): -3.3%, Turnover: HK$27.9m
China Res Power (836.HK): -3.0%, Turnover: HK$94.9m
China Merchants (144.HK): -2.5%, Turnover: HK$173.8m

Major ETF Performance

ETF	Close	1D chg (%)	5D chg (%)
CSOP A50 (2822.HK)	8.43	0.0	1.2
ChinaAMC CSI 300 (3188.HK)	27.4	-0.2	0.7
E Fund CSI 300 (3100.HK)	25.6	0.2	1.0
X iShares FTSE A50 (2823.HK)	8.42	-0.1	1.4
S WISE CSI 300 (2827.HK)	22.55	0.2	2.0
HGI MSCI CN A (3118.HK)	9.51	0.1	-0.2
SPDR Gold Trust (2840.HK)	964	-0.1	-0.6
Value Gold ETF (3081.HK)	31.6	0.0	-0.5
Value Japan ETF (3084.HK)	12.22	0.0	2.0

Summary of Key Insights

COSL is expected to benefit from CNOOC's capex growth, with a Buy recommendation and a target of HK$22.00.
Weigao has shown improvement in gross margin and R&D investment, with a Buy recommendation and a target of HK$9.30.
The HSI is expected to test lower at 22,200 due to short-term pullback and technical resistance.
Tencent faced significant declines, likely due to market sentiment and competitive pressures.
The U.S. job data missed expectations, leading to declines in major indices.
Gold prices increased due to weak U.S. job data, while crude oil prices were supported by geopolitical concerns.
Market turnover and ETF performance indicate mixed market sentiment and short-term volatility.