20220914-招银国际-CMBI_Research_Focus_List_Our_best_high_conviction_ideas_26页_2mb

报告摘要

CMBI Research Focus List Summary

Core Content Overview

The CMBI Research Focus List from 14 September 2022 highlights a range of long and short-term investment ideas, emphasizing companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions. The report includes 10 long ideas with a BUY rating, along with additions and deletions to the list, and provides performance data for the previous recommendations.

Main Ideas and Key Information

Long Ideas (BUY Rating)

Company	Ticker	Sector	Market Cap (US$ bn)	3M ADTV (US$ mn)	Price (LC)	TP (LC)	Upside	P/E (x) FY22E	P/B (x) FY23E	ROE FY22E	Yield FY22E	Analysts
NIO Inc.	NIO US	Auto	36.3	992.7	21.8	28.0	29%	N/A	N/A	7.0	-30.5	Shi Ji/ Dou Wenjing
EVA Holdings	838 HK	Auto	15.2	121.9	1.5	3.0	99%	6.9	4.3	0.7	11.5	Shi Ji/ Dou Wenjing
Zhejiang Jingsheng	300316 CH	Capital Goods	3.5	2.1	80.6	96.0	19%	37.2	29.7	9.9	32.4	Wayne Fung
SANY International	631 HK	Capital Goods	36.3	136.0	8.6	14.6	70%	13.1	10.8	2.2	17.7	Wayne Fung
SF Holding	002352 CH	Express Delivery	36.3	136.0	51.4	94.0	83%	32.5	22.3	2.9	9.2	Wayne Fung
Bosideng	3998 HK	Consumer Disc.	5.8	16.4	4.2	5.9	42%	15.3	12.7	2.9	20.7	Walter Woo
CR Beer	291 HK	Consumer Staples	22.2	57.6	53.8	71.0	32%	31.0	27.8	4.5	15.0	Joseph Wong
Budweiser APAC	1876 HK	Consumer Staples	36.9	19.0	21.9	28.4	30%	35.0	29.3	3.1	9.2	Joseph Wong
Proya	603605 CH	Consumer Staples	6.6	40.0	160.2	184.0	15%	44.4	33.0	9.4	21.4	Joseph Wong
Innovent Biologics	1801 HK	Healthcare	5.6	49.7	28.6	52.6	84%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Jill Wu/ Andy Wang
WuXi Biologics	2269 HK	Healthcare	5.6	49.7	53.4	120.4	125%	54.1	40.6	6.6	12.9	Jill Wu/ Benchen Huang
CPIC	2601 HK	Insurance	29.0	191.7	16.9	25.2	49%	N/A	N/A	N/A	9.9	Gigi Chen
Kuaishou	1024 HK	Internet	27.2	21.8	63.3	120.0	90%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Sophie Huang
CR Land	1109 HK	Property	34.6	199.5	33.9	44.8	32%	7.1	N/A	1.0	14.3	Jeffrey Zeng/ Miao Zhang
CG Services	6098 HK	Property	30.8	44.7	15.7	47.6	203%	7.6	5.7	4.3	30.2	Jeffrey Zeng/ Miao Zhang
Goertek	002241 CH	Technology	6.8	77.7	32.7	48.0	47%	18.9	15.6	2.9	18.5	Alex Ng/ Lily Yang
Wingtech	600745 CH	Technology	16.1	374.3	60.1	93.1	55%	31.1	20.3	N/A	8.1	Lily Yang/ Alex Ng
Kingdee	268 HK	Software & IT services	10.8	269.6	13.3	23.8	79%	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.0	Marley Ngan

Latest Additions and Deletions

Additions:

Bosideng (3998 HK): Strong growth potential from product launches and volume growth under current economic conditions.
Nayuki (2150 HK): Strong position in the low-mid end tea drink market, with digitalization and easing of lockdowns expected to boost sales and net profit in 2H22E.
Proya (603605 CH): Steady 3Q and high online contribution.
CPIC (2601 HK): Expect new business value growth to turn positive in 3Q22, with double-digit agency FYP growth in July-Aug 2022.

Deletions:

Xtep (1368 HK): Sales recovery expected, but investor expectations are already high and short-term catalysts are limited.
Midea (000333 CH): Long-term outperformer, but short-term sales may ease after a strong summer performance.
PICC P&C (2328 HK): Continued improvement in underwriting margin and solid premiums growth, but more near-term catalysts are expected from CPIC.

Performance of Previous Recommendations

In the last report (12 August 2022), 18 long ideas were highlighted.
The equal-weighted basket of these stocks underperformed the MSCI China index by 3.7ppt, delivering a -6.3% return (vs MSCI China -2.6%).
5 of the 18 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.
PICC P&C and Zhejiang Jingsheng delivered over 10% returns.

Key Insights and Investment Rationale

NIO Inc.: Strong sequential sales improvement potential due to new models (ET7, ES7, ET5), with a target price based on 3.5x FY23E P/S.
EVA Holdings: Inflection point in auto components business with significant growth from Tesla and other leading automakers. Target price based on sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Zhejiang Jingsheng: Benefiting from solar equipment capex growth and SiC breakthroughs. Target price based on 35x 2023E P/E.
SANY International: Strong performance across all segments, with intelligent machinery and electric products gaining traction. Target price based on 23x 2022E P/E.
Bosideng: Superior fashion and digital capability leading to long-term market share gains. Target price based on 18x FY24E P/E.
Nayuki: Achieved breakeven with cost efficiency and automation, leading to improved margins. Target price based on DCF method.
CR Beer: Beat expectations in 1H22 with better cost efficiency and stable GPM. Target price based on mid-23E EV/EBITDA.

Valuation and Catalysts

NIO Inc.: Target price US$28.00, 29% upside. Catalysts include sales volume improvement and ET5 deliveries.
EVA Holdings: Target price HK$3.00, 99% upside. Catalysts include supplier nominations from new OEMs and Tesla US sales ramp-up.
Zhejiang Jingsheng: Target price RMB96, 19% upside. Catalysts include favorable policies, product innovations, and expansion into new markets.
SANY International: Target price HK$14.6, 70% upside. Catalysts include coal mining capex and new product launches.
Bosideng: Target price HK$5.89, 42% upside. Catalysts include better weather, product launches, and rising domestic fashion demand.
Nayuki: Target price HK$7.38, 22% upside. Catalysts include product launches, efficiency gains, and industry consolidation.
CR Beer: Target price HK$71.0, 32% upside. Catalysts include cost efficiency, stable GPM, and strong summer sales momentum.

Conclusion

The CMBI Focus List highlights companies with strong growth potential across various sectors, particularly in Auto, Capital Goods, and Consumer Staples. The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation, cost efficiency, and strategic positioning in driving long-term value. Each recommendation is backed by detailed financial analysis and specific catalysts, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks in the coming quarters.

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