2025-05-20-麦肯锡-英文进取的群岛_推动印度尼西亚；生产率_31页_10mb

Summary: Indonesia's Path to High-Income Economy by 2045

Indonesia aims to achieve high-income status by 2045, requiring accelerated GDP growth from an average of 4.9% since 2000 to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, driven primarily by productivity improvements. Productivity growth must increase 1.6 times, from 3.1% to 4.9%, through capital deepening, scaling medium and large companies, and shifting employment away from low-productivity informal microenterprises.

Key enablers for this journey include the five types of capital:

• Financial capital: Mobilizing savings into formal financial systems to support investment.
• Human capital: Improving education quality and aligning skills with high-income economy demands.
• Institutional capital: Strengthening governance to enhance business competitiveness and reduce regulatory barriers.
• Infrastructural capital: Investing in logistics and urban infrastructure to overcome geographic challenges.
• Entrepreneurial capital: Fostering new formal businesses and innovation to drive economic scaling.

Challenges include Indonesia's archipelago geography, which exacerbates regional disparities and logistics costs, a dominant informal economy (accounting for 59% of employment), and ongoing urbanization issues. Urban migration is projected to increase significantly, necessitating sustainable infrastructure development.

To succeed, Indonesia must triple the number of medium and large companies and increase their productivity contribution. Specific sector shifts are needed, with services expanding more than manufacturing, and measures to revitalize agriculture and manufacturing through technology and value chain integration.

Indicators and milestones, derived from reference economies like Chile, China, Poland, and South Korea, show Indonesia is laggDespite global complexities like climate change and geopolitical shifts, historical precedents support feasibility. Success requires unified action across government, business, and society.

Table: Key Indicators for High-Income Scenario

Indonesia has until 2045 to transform its economy through focused efforts on enabling capital, ensuring alignment with global trends and sustainable development goals.