印度尼西亚可再生能源前景（英文版）_108页-10mb

REmap: Renewable Energy Prospects for Indonesia

Core Content

The REmap report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2017, outlines Indonesia's renewable energy prospects and potential pathways to achieve its renewable energy targets by 2030 and 2050. It provides a detailed roadmap for increasing the share of renewable energy in the country's energy mix, emphasizing the need for policy support, investment, and sustainable resource management.

Main Viewpoints

1. Energy Consumption Growth

• Indonesia is one of the fastest-growing energy consumers globally.
• It is the largest energy user in ASEAN, accounting for nearly 40% of the region's total energy use.
• Between 2000 and 2014, energy consumption increased by nearly 65%, and is projected to grow by 80% by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.

2. Renewable Energy Targets

• Indonesia aims to increase renewable energy use to 23% of total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025 and 31% by 2050.
• These targets are aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
• Under the Reference Case, the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) is expected to rise from 6% (2014) to 17% by 2030.
• With the REmap Options, the share of renewable energy in TFEC could reach 23% by 2030, and in TPES, 31%.

3. Energy Mix and Resource Potential

• Indonesia has significant potential for geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind, and bioenergy.
• The country's geothermal and hydropower resources are among the world's largest.
• Solar PV offers the greatest potential, with REmap identifying 47 GW of installed capacity by 2030, compared to 9 GW in the Reference Case.
• Bioenergy is a major component of the renewable mix, with traditional uses (mainly for cooking) still accounting for a large share, though modern bioenergy and liquid biofuels are expected to grow.

4. Key Sectors for Renewable Energy Uptake

• Power Generation: Renewable energy is expected to increase from 29% in the Reference Case to 38% with REmap by 2030.
• Buildings: Renewable energy share in TFEC for buildings could rise from 18% in the Reference Case to 37% with REmap.
• Transport: With REmap, renewable energy could account for 18% of transport TFEC by 2030, up from 3% today.
• Industry: The share of renewable energy in industry TFEC could increase from 12% (2014) to 21% (2030), with bioenergy and solar thermal playing key roles.

5. Investment and Costs

• Annual investments in renewable energy could reach USD 16 billion between 2015 and 2030.
• From a government perspective, the energy system could save USD 1.7 billion per year by 2030 due to higher renewable energy uptake.
• With a market discount rate, the cost to the energy system is estimated at USD 1.1 billion per year.

6. Environmental and Economic Benefits

• Renewable energy adoption would reduce energy system costs, air pollution, and carbon dioxide emissions.
• It is projected to save up to USD 53 billion annually by 2030, or 1.7% of Indonesia's GDP.
• The use of renewable energy would reduce fossil fuel demand by 10%, with the largest reductions in coal (17%) and oil (9%).

Key Information

• REmap is a global initiative by IRENA to support countries in their transition to renewable energy.
• The report highlights barriers and opportunities across the power sector, end-use sectors, and bioenergy.
• Sustainable supply chains for bioenergy are essential for its long-term expansion.
• Electric mobility is emphasized in the transport sector as a key REmap option.
• The report acknowledges the contributions of various stakeholders, including the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, and external experts.

Summary of REmap Options

Investment Needs

• Annual investment in renewable energy capacity is expected to reach USD 16 billion between 2015 and 2030.
• Solar PV and bioenergy require the most significant investment.
• Cost of capital for renewable projects should be reduced to support growth.

Conclusion

IRENA believes that with the right policies and investments, Indonesia can achieve its 2050 renewable energy target as early as 2030. The report underscores the importance of renewable energy integration across all sectors and the need for policy reforms, investment, and sustainable resource management to ensure a successful transition. It also highlights the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy, including cost savings and emission reductions.