亚开行-亚洲发展中国家公私合作项目的危害分析（英文）-2018.7-30页

报告摘要

Summary of HAZARD ANALYSIS ON PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING ASIA

Core Content

This paper provides a hazard analysis of public-private partnership (PPP) projects in developing Asia, using survival time hazard analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the likelihood of project failure. The study highlights the challenges and risks associated with PPPs, particularly in the context of long-term contracts and multiple stakeholders, and suggests policy implications for improving project outcomes.

Main Viewpoints

Infrastructure Gap in Developing Asia: Despite rapid improvements, developing Asia still faces a significant infrastructure gap, with over 400 million people lacking access to basic infrastructure. An estimated $26 trillion in investments is needed from 2016 to 2030 to sustain growth and address climate change.
PPP as a Mechanism: PPPs are defined as long-term contracts between the public and private sectors, where the private party bears significant risk and management responsibility. They are seen as an innovative tool to improve public sector performance by accessing private capital.
PPP Failure Rates: From 1991 to 2015, 259 PPP projects in developing countries were cancelled, and 67 were distressed. In developing Asia, more than half of the cancelled projects were in the transport and energy sectors. The average time for project cancellation was 5 years after financial closure, typically during the final construction phase.
Factors Affecting PPP Outcomes:
- Government Support: Government guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks (MDBs), and the existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for project success.
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Economic growth is positively correlated with successful PPP outcomes. However, macroeconomic risks such as inflation and natural disasters can negatively impact projects.
- Institutional Frameworks: Strong legal and institutional environments, along with transparency and accountability, are essential for PPP success. Weak governance and poor regulatory frameworks increase the risk of failure.
Private Sector Involvement: Private initiatives should be regulated and subject to competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate. The private sector is sensitive to corruption, legal quality, and the number of disputes in a sector.
Risk Management: The long-term nature of PPP contracts and the complexity of stakeholder involvement increase project risk. Proper risk allocation, clear contracts, and institutional safeguards are critical for success.

Key Information

Data Source: The World Bank's Private Participation in Infrastructure database is used as the primary data source, covering 6,273 PPP projects from 1991 to 2015.
Project Cancellation Trends: Most PPP project cancellations in developing Asia occurred in the transport and energy sectors, with a high failure rate in information and communication technology (ICT) projects (25%).
Role of MDBs: MDBs play a crucial role in reducing PPP project risks by providing operational assistance and policy dialogue. Projects involving MDBs are 50% less likely to face distress compared to those without their involvement.
Policy Recommendations: Policymakers should carefully assess project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors to determine the expected efficiency gains of proposed PPPs. Ensuring a stable macroeconomic environment and strong institutional capacity is essential for attracting and managing PPPs effectively.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the importance of a robust legal and institutional framework, effective risk management, and macroeconomic stability in the successful implementation of PPP projects. It also highlights the need for better coordination between public and private sectors, transparency, and the involvement of multilateral development banks to mitigate risks and ensure project sustainability.

Structure of the Paper

I. Introduction: Discusses the role of PPPs in addressing infrastructure gaps and the challenges they face.
II. Literature Review: Reviews factors affecting PPP project outcomes, including failure reasons, success factors, and formation requirements.
III. Data and Analytical Framework: Describes the data used and the analytical approach (survival time hazard analysis).
IV. Empirical Results: Presents the findings of the hazard analysis, showing the impact of various factors on project success.
V. Policy Implications: Offers recommendations for policymakers to improve PPP project outcomes in developing Asia.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Parametric Hazard Regression for Developing Asia
Table 2: Parametric Hazard Regression between Developing Asia and Other Developing Regions
Figure 1: Cancelled PPP Projects by Region, 1991-2015
Figure 2: Cancelled PPP Projects by Sector and Project Type by Investment, 1991-2015
Figure 3: Mean Duration of PPP Project Cancellations
Figure 4: Factors Affecting PPP Project Outcomes