亚开行-亚洲发展中国家的脱碳途径：来自建模情景的证据（英）-2023.12-45页_2mb

Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios

Summary: This paper analyzes decarbonization pathways for developing Asia using integrated assessment models from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. It highlights the need for rapid energy sector transformation to meet Paris Agreement goals, emphasizing a decline in coal use and rise in renewable energy. The findings show that under current policies, emissions would exceed limits, but ambitious scenarios can achieve low costs and high investment returns with modest economic impacts.

Key Findings:

• Emissions and Climate Goals: Developing Asia's emissions under current policies will miss Paris Agreement targets, leading to warming above 3°C. The 2°C scenarios require rapid decarbonization by mid-century.
• Energy Sector Transformation: Coal must decline rapidly; in 2°C scenarios, renewables dominate electricity generation by 2070, with coal's share reduced to less than 5%. Energy intensity decreases more under ambitious policies.
• Investment and Growth: Significant investment is needed (e.g., $17-23 trillion by 2050 for energy supply), but efficient mitigation can keep costs low, with policy costs under 0.8% of GDP.
• Policy Recommendations: Early action and efficient allocation of efforts can reduce long-term costs, supporting sustainable development while addressing climate risks.

Methodology: Based on a comparative analysis of 9 major IAMs from the AR6 database, evaluating scenarios including current policies, NDCs, and Paris-aligned pathways to assess consistency in decarbonization outcomes.