2023-12-31-亚开行-亚洲发展中国家的脱碳途径_来自建模情景的证据_45页_2mb

Summary of Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia

Developing Asia faces significant climate challenges, contributing about 44% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2019, with coal being a major energy source. The study, based on the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report and integrated assessment models (IAMs), examines decarbonization pathways necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to well below 2°C.

Key findings indicate strong consistency across major models: a rapid decline in coal's share and a substantial rise in renewable energy are required. Under current policies, emissions continue to rise, missing Paris targets. Ambitious scenarios, such as carbon neutrality, demand swift transitions, including electrification, energy efficiency, and increased renewable capacity, with coal reduced to less than 5% in electricity generation.

Investment needs are substantial, with modelled scenarios requiring up to $23 trillion in clean energy investments by 2050, offsetting fossil fuel costs. Policy costs are relatively low at under 1% of GDP if mitigation efforts are efficient, reducing economic risks compared to inaction.

The conclusion emphasizes that developing Asia's energy transformation is critical, with early action feasible and beneficial, supported by modeling evidence. This aligns with global climate goals and offers opportunities for sustainable development.