国际可持续发展研究所-农业的未来：加拿大大草原上的农业和气候变化（英）-2021.11-116页_4mb

Summary of Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies

Core Content

This report, Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies, examines the complex relationship between agriculture and climate change in the Prairie provinces of Canada (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba). It highlights the historical, socio-cultural, and environmental context of Prairie farming, the current climate-related challenges, and the opportunities for sustainable adaptation and mitigation.

The report underscores that while the Canadian Prairies are known for their agricultural productivity, they are also increasingly vulnerable to climate change due to rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events. These changes are expected to affect both crop and livestock production, with increased risks of drought, heat waves, wildfires, floods, and the spread of pests and diseases.

Main Points

1. Historical Context of Prairie Agriculture

• Colonization and land use change: Prairie agriculture was established through European-style farming practices that replaced Indigenous land management systems, leading to significant environmental and social changes.
• Early adaptation efforts: In the 1930s, during the Dust Bowl, farmers began to organize through collective marketing and advocacy tools like the Canadian Wheat Board and the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Agency (PFRA).
• Industrialization: Over the past 80 years, Prairie agriculture has shifted from a cooperative model to an industrial one, focused on maximizing production and exports.
• Current trends: The number of farms has declined, while average farm size has tripled. Inputs such as nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides have increased significantly, contributing to both economic and environmental pressures.

2. Climate Change Impacts

• Rising temperatures: The Prairies are warming faster than any other region in Canada, except the Arctic.
• Changing precipitation patterns: Precipitation is expected to increase in winter and spring, but summer and fall will become drier, with more intense storms and flooding.
• Increased climate risks: Heat stress, drought, wildfires, and pest migration are becoming more frequent, threatening both crop and livestock production.
• Global and local policy implications: Climate change policies in export markets (e.g., EU’s Farm-to-Fork strategy) and consumer behavior shifts (e.g., demand for plant-based proteins) are influencing Prairie agriculture.

3. Agricultural Contributions to Climate Change

• GHG emissions: Prairie agriculture accounts for a significant portion of Canada’s total agricultural emissions, with 80% of the country’s agricultural land located in these provinces.
• Emission sources:
  • 20% from on-farm fuel use.
  • 35% from crop production (primarily nitrous oxide from synthetic nitrogen fertilizers).
  • 45% from animal production (methane from enteric fermentation and manure management).
• Comparative emissions: Canola has nearly twice the GHG emissions per kg of dry matter as spring wheat, which is more than twice that of tame hay.

4. Policy Challenges

• Lack of national targets: Canada does not have a concrete national target for reducing agricultural emissions, which creates uncertainty for producers and investors.
• Fragmented policy approaches: There is a lack of comprehensive planning and coordination between federal and provincial governments, as well as across departments.
• Insufficient support: Public extension services and research funding have declined, and existing programs are limited in scope and accessibility.
• Need for systemic change: Policy support is essential for the adoption of beneficial management practices (BMPs) that reduce emissions and enhance resilience.

Key Recommendations

To address the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change, the report recommends the following:

For Governments

• Reinstate public extension services: Focus on agroecological practices and climate resilience.
• Introduce crop insurance discounts: Link improved practices with reduced climate risk.
• Establish incentives for sustainable livestock practices: Including grazing BMPs and manure management.
• Facilitate payment for ecosystem services: Support nature-based solutions.
• Improve on-farm energy use: Promote energy efficiency and renewable energy generation.
• Ensure robust criteria for carbon offsets: Make agricultural carbon credits credible and effective.
• Phase out harmful subsidies: Redirect funding toward sustainable practices.
• Enhance monitoring and evaluation: Improve transparency and effectiveness of agricultural programs.

For Industry

• Innovate: Develop zero-emission equipment, feed supplements, and intercropping techniques.
• Support research and market development: Promote sustainable food production and new technologies.

For NGOs and Producer Associations

• Scale up local programs: Recognize and support climate-resilient producers as trainers and mentors.
• Advocate for supportive policies: Help producers transition to sustainable practices.

For Indigenous Partnerships

• Integrate Traditional Knowledge: Collaborate with Indigenous communities on land management and climate adaptation.

For the Development of Canada’s Food Policy

• Integrate climate change: Ensure that the Food Policy for Canada addresses environmental issues and sustainability.
• Adapt risk management and policy frameworks: Align them with climate resilience and sustainable practices.
• Support regional and local solutions: Empower local planning authorities to develop context-specific strategies.
• Develop a pan-Canadian soil health strategy: Promote long-term land stewardship and biodiversity.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the future of Prairie agriculture depends on a holistic approach that combines climate adaptation, emissions reduction, and sustainable practices. It calls for a cultural shift in agriculture, supported by policy, industry, and community collaboration, to ensure a climate-safe and resilient agricultural system. By working together, stakeholders can enable a more sustainable and prosperous future for Prairie farming and the broader Canadian agricultural sector.