2017德国国家改革方案（英文版）

Summary of the National Reform Programme 2017

Core Content

The National Reform Programme (NRP) 2017 is a key document of the German Federal Government, outlining its strategy to address macroeconomic challenges and support the goals of the Europe 2020 strategy. It is part of the European Semester process, which aims to coordinate economic policies across the European Union. The NRP 2017 responds to the European Commission's country report and the in-depth review of Germany's macroeconomic imbalances.

Main Macro-Economic Challenges

1. Macroeconomic Context

• Economic Growth: Germany's economy is performing well, with GDP growth of 1.9% in 2016 (price-adjusted) and an expected 1.4% in 2017. The growth is driven by strong domestic demand and a low unemployment rate (6.1% in 2016), which is the lowest in 25 years.
• Labour Market: Employment has increased significantly, with 43.6 million people in gainful employment in 2016. The employment rate is the highest in the EU, and the core working population (aged 15–64) has a high participation rate.
• Wages and Inflation: Real wages and salaries have increased on average by more than 1.5% annually since 2013. The wage share is at 68%, close to the long-term average. While unit labour costs are rising slightly due to modest productivity growth, inflationary pressures are not expected to be significant.
• Consumer Spending: Private households are increasing their consumption and investment in residential property. Public-sector consumption and investment are also rising, especially due to refugee-related spending and expanded long-term care services.
• Exports and Imports: German exports are expected to grow modestly, while imports are increasing more rapidly. This could lead to a reduction in the current account surplus.

2. German Current Account Surplus

• The German current account surplus was identified by the European Commission as a potential imbalance, though the Federal Government argues it is not excessive.
• The surplus declined slightly in 2016 (from 8.6% to 8.3% of nominal GDP) and is expected to fall further in 2017 and 2018.
• The surplus is influenced by both temporary factors (e.g., low oil prices, weak euro exchange rate) and structural factors (e.g., high competitiveness, demographic trends, and global investment strategies).
• Germany's current account surplus relative to the eurozone has dropped significantly over the last decade, from €105 billion in 2007 to €61 billion in 2016.

Key Actions to Address Challenges

A. Strengthening Public Investment

• The Federal Government is increasing public investment in infrastructure, education, research, and innovation.
• A national investment strategy is being implemented to ensure that public spending supports long-term growth.
• The federal budget has seen an increase in investment spending by over 40% since the start of the legislative term, reaching €36.1 billion in 2017.
• The government is providing €79 billion in relief to the Länder and municipalities to enhance their investment capacity.
• The fiscal relations between the Federation and the Länder are being restructured to improve efficiency and effectiveness in public investment.

B. Stimulating Private Investment

• A more efficient tax system is being introduced to encourage private investment.
• Bureaucracy reduction and modernisation of procurement law are being pursued to make the investment environment more attractive.
• The energy transition is being supported to ensure it is investment-friendly.
• Competition in the services sector is being further stimulated to promote economic dynamism.

C. Labour Market Reforms

• Measures are being taken to increase incentives for later retirement and encourage second earners to participate in the workforce.
• The tax and contribution burden for low-wage earners is being reduced.
• Efforts are being made to reduce non-standard employment and facilitate the transition from mini-jobs to standard employment relationships.
• The integration of refugees into the labour market is being accelerated to ensure they contribute to the economy.

Europe 2020 Strategy

The NRP 2017 aligns with the Europe 2020 strategy, which focuses on five main goals:

1. Fostering Employment

• The government is strengthening the framework for labour participation.
• It is increasing the skills pool through vocational training and education.
• It is promoting fairer wages and supporting the integration of refugees into the workforce.

2. Improving Innovation and R&D

• A strategy for research and innovation is being implemented at both federal and Länder levels.
• The government is promoting digital transformation to enhance competitiveness and productivity.

3. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Improving Energy Efficiency

• Germany is working to meet climate targets and increase renewable energy usage.
• It is promoting energy and resource efficiency to reduce environmental impact.

4. Improving Education Levels

• The government is committed to raising education standards to support long-term economic growth and competitiveness.

5. Promoting Social Inclusion and Reducing Poverty

• The NRP includes measures to combat poverty and promote social inclusion.
• It focuses on integration into the labour market and society and supporting the elderly in maintaining social participation.
• Efforts are being made to address housing market scarcity and improve affordability.

Process and Stakeholders

• The NRP 2017 was developed in response to the European Commission's 2017 country report and country-specific recommendations from the Council of the European Union.
• The Federal Government is working closely with the European Commission to implement the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and support the reform of the Economic and Monetary Union.
• The NRP is aligned with the Annual Growth Survey and the conclusions of the European Council from March 2017.

Key Figures and Projections

Conclusion

The NRP 2017 reflects Germany's commitment to inclusive and sustainable growth, social cohesion, and economic resilience. It addresses macroeconomic imbalances, particularly the current account surplus, and outlines measures to stimulate public and private investment, improve the labour market, and support the Europe 2020 strategy. The programme also highlights the importance of fiscal responsibility, demographic challenges, and global economic conditions in shaping Germany's economic outlook.