20210614-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_Boost_in_2021_22_Winter_Wheat_Production_Lifts_U.S._Wheat_Supplies,_Feed___Residual_9页_1008kb

Wheat Outlook Summary - June 2021

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global wheat supply, demand, and trade outlook for the 2021/22 marketing year. It highlights production increases, changes in domestic and international use, and implications for global stocks and prices.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

Production

• Total U.S. wheat production for 2021/22 is projected at 1,898 million bushels, a 4% increase from 2020/21.
• Winter wheat production is forecast at 1,309 million bushels, up 12% from 2020, driven by higher Hard Red Winter (up 6% from May) and Soft Red Winter (up 1% from May) production.
• White Winter wheat production is reduced by 8% to 202 million bushels, due to drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

Supply and Use

• Total U.S. wheat supply is raised to 2,875 million bushels, up 6 million bushels from the May forecast.
• Feed and residual use is increased by 10 million bushels to 180 million, the highest since the 2013/14 marketing year.
• Domestic use is raised to 1,205 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from May, reflecting increased feed use and stable seed and food consumption.
• Ending stocks are forecast at 769 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from the previous month, due to higher use and lower beginning stocks.

Prices

• Season-average farm price for 2021/22 remains at $6.50, the highest in 7 years.
• Wheat is projected to be competitively priced with corn, especially during the first quarter of the marketing year.

Global Wheat Outlook

Production

• Global wheat production for 2021/22 is raised to a record 794.4 million metric tons, up 5.5 million MT from the previous forecast.
• EU production is increased by 3.5 million MT to 137.5 million MT, driven by better yields in Germany, France, and Romania.
• Russia production is raised by 1 million MT to 86 million MT, with increases in both winter and spring wheat.
• Ukraine production is up 0.5 million MT to 29.5 million MT, reflecting improved yields.
• Turkey production is reduced by 250,000 MT to 17 million MT due to drought.
• Algeria production is cut by 100,000 MT to 3.6 million MT.
• Moldova production is increased by 100,000 MT to 1.2 million MT, benefiting from favorable weather similar to Ukraine and Western Russia.

Consumption

• Global wheat consumption is raised to a record 791.1 million MT, up 2.4 million MT.
• EU feed and residual use is increased by 1 million MT to 45 million MT.
• Russia feed and residual use is raised by 500,000 MT to 19.5 million MT.
• U.S. feed and residual use is up 272,000 MT to 4.9 million MT, supported by higher supplies and competitive pricing with corn.
• Brazil feed and residual use is increased by 200,000 MT to 700,000 MT.
• China feed and residual use remains unchanged at 35 million MT, as wheat remains competitive in feed rations.
• China's wheat-corn price spread is at a historic low, with wheat prices rising only slightly while corn prices surged.

Trade

• Global wheat trade for 2021/22 is up 0.8 million MT to a record 204 million MT.
• Ukraine exports are raised to 20.5 million MT, its second-highest on record.
• India exports are up 300,000 MT to 2.3 million MT, due to competitive prices and strong regional demand.
• Turkey imports are raised by 250,000 MT to offset lower production.
• Brazil imports are increased by 200,000 MT based on stronger feed demand.
• Bangladesh imports are up 200,000 MT to 7 million MT, reflecting higher expected food and feed demand.
• EU imports are down 200,000 MT to 5.8 million MT, due to larger domestic supplies.

Stocks

• Global wheat stocks for 2021/22 are raised to 296.8 million MT, up 1.8 million MT from the previous forecast.
• EU stocks are up 2.3 million MT to 12 million MT.
• Russia stocks are raised to 15.5 million MT, the largest since 1993/94.
• U.S. stocks are down 104,000 MT to 21 million MT, due to tighter beginning stocks and increased feed use.
• Australia stocks are reduced to 4.6 million MT, reflecting lower production and tighter beginning stocks.
• India stocks are down 400,000 MT to 27.6 million MT, but still projected to be record-high.
• China stocks are up 200,000 MT to 142.6 million MT, representing 48% of global stocks.
• Moldova stocks are down 115,000 MT to 186,000 MT, due to tighter beginning stocks and higher use.
• Morocco stocks are adjusted downward for both beginning and ending stocks, reflecting reduced 2020/21 imports.

Key Information

• The U.S. wheat supply is slightly below 2020/21 but has increased by 6 million bushels from the May forecast.
• The U.S. drought in the Pacific Northwest has significantly impacted white winter wheat production.
• Global stocks are projected to remain lower than the 2019/20 record, but exporter stocks are at the highest level in 3 years.
• China's wheat-corn price spread is at a historic low, indicating wheat's competitiveness in feed rations.
• Ukraine and India are among the top countries increasing their wheat exports.
• Turkey and Algeria face production challenges due to drought, while Moldova benefits from favorable weather.
• Trade revisions reflect both supply-side improvements and demand-side adjustments, with Bangladesh and Brazil showing notable increases in imports.