2018年油价预测_谁预测最好_（英文版）_23页_884kb

2018 Oil Price Forecast: Who Predicts Best?

Core Content

Roland Berger has been conducting an annual review of oil price forecasts since 2007. The 2018 report focuses on analyzing the accuracy of forecasts from the top oil exporting countries and major energy institutions such as NYMEX, EIA, and OECD. The report also provides insights into market dynamics, supply and demand trends, and future price outlooks.

Main Points

1. Forecasting Accuracy Analysis

• Top-3 Most Accurate Countries in 2017: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran were identified as the top three forecasters based on their historical accuracy.
• Forecast Error: The average absolute year-on-year forecasting error for the top-3 countries was 37% below the actual price between 1999 and 2016.
• Institutional Forecasters: Energy institutions (NYMEX, EIA, OECD) have shown better forecasting accuracy since 2009, and since 2012, they have outperformed oil exporting countries.
• Saudi Arabia's Bullish Forecast: Despite its historical accuracy, Saudi Arabia overestimated the oil price in 2017, mainly due to budgetary considerations and an underestimation of US shale oil production.

2. Market Dynamics in 2017

• Oil Price: The average WTI oil price in 2017 was USD 51/bbl, slightly below the USD 55/bbl forecasted by the top-3 forecasters.
• Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand grew in 2017, leading to a consistent period of undersupply.
• OPEC Production: OPEC adhered to its production quota, with Libya and Nigeria excluded due to internal conflicts.
• US Shale Oil: The increase in US shale oil production (around 5.6 m bbl/day) helped compensate for the OPEC production decline, thus stabilizing prices.

3. Future Oil Price Outlook

• 2018 Forecast: Both institutions and the top-3 most accurate countries predict an oil price of around USD 54/bbl for 2018.
• Global Oil Consumption: Historically, oil consumption has followed GDP growth, but since 1973, the correlation has weakened.
• Demand Peak: BP predicts that global oil demand will peak between 2025 and 2035, depending on the scenario.
• Proven Reserves: The US, with its proven reserves, is positioned to maintain pressure on oil prices as a swing supplier.

Key Information

• Forecasting Methodology: Forecasts are adjusted for the ratio of local oil prices to WTI prices and for budget deviations to ensure comparability.
• Public Budget Management: Saudi Arabia's oil price forecasts are influenced by its public budget management, particularly under the National Transformation Plan (NTP 2020).
• Shale Oil Impact: The profitability and production growth of US shale oil have significantly affected global oil markets.
• CEO Quotes: Major oil company CEOs generally expect a slight increase in oil prices in the coming years, with most anticipating prices to remain in the USD 55–70 range.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2018 Roland Berger oil price forecast highlights the evolving role of institutions in accurately predicting oil prices, influenced by the rise of US shale oil production. While OPEC's compliance with production quotas played a role in 2017's market dynamics, the US shale sector has emerged as a critical swing producer. The report anticipates a modest increase in oil prices for 2018, with forecasts aligning around USD 54/bbl, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook from both institutional and national sources.