20250411-招银国际-Expecting_solid_revenue_and_earnings_growth_5页_851kb

JD.com (JD US) Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of JD.com (JD US) for the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25E) and long-term financial forecasts up to 2027. The report anticipates solid revenue and earnings growth, driven by the nationwide implementation of the subsidy program and the expansion of the company's core business. The analysts maintain a "BUY" rating with an unchanged target price of US$55.00.

Main Financial Forecasts

Revenue

• 1Q25E: Expected to reach RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, potentially 1% better than Bloomberg consensus.
• FY25E: Revenue is forecasted at RMB1,267,790mn, growing 9.4% YoY.
• FY26E: Revenue is expected to increase by 5.7% YoY to RMB1,340,219mn.
• FY27E: Revenue growth is projected at 4.4% YoY to RMB1,398,757mn.

Non-GAAP Net Profit

• 1Q25E: Anticipated to grow 21% YoY to RMB49,020.6mn, translating into a non-GAAP NPM of 3.7% (+0.3ppts YoY).
• FY25E: Adjusted net profit is expected at RMB52,198.8mn.
• FY26E: Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB56,288.4mn.
• FY27E: Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB59,141.6mn.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Adjusted EPS (FY25E): RMB33.94
• Consensus EPS (FY25E): RMB33.79
• Adjusted EPS (FY26E): RMB36.60
• Consensus EPS (FY26E): RMB36.88
• Adjusted EPS (FY27E): RMB38.45
• Consensus EPS (FY27E): RMB39.12

P/E Ratio

• FY25E: 8.0x
• FY26E: 7.4x
• FY27E: 7.0x

Key Business Drivers

• Subsidy and Trade-In Programs: The nationwide implementation of the subsidy program is expected to drive significant revenue growth in the Electronics and Home Appliance (E&HA) segment, with 14% YoY growth in revenue for 1Q25E.
• General Merchandise Revenue: Projected to grow 11% YoY for 1Q25E, consistent with previous quarters.
• Services Revenue: Anticipated to grow 10% YoY, with marketplace and advertising revenue expected to grow 12% YoY.
• Core JD Retail (JDR) Business: Continued investment in user growth, shopping frequency, user experience, and supply chain capabilities is a priority, with non-GAAP net profit growth expected to remain 9% YoY on a group level.
• Food Delivery and Jingxi Expansion: Incremental investment in these areas is expected to offset core JD Retail earnings growth, but the impact is considered controllable due to disciplined business expansion strategies.

Risks

• Intensified Competition: May weigh on margins.
• Slower-than-Expected Revenue Growth: Could affect financial performance if the growth in the E&HA segment and general merchandise revenue does not meet expectations.

Financial Highlights

Income Statement (in RMB mn)

• Revenue: Increased from RMB1,046,236mn (2022A) to RMB1,267,790mn (2025E).
• Gross Profit: Expected to grow from RMB147,073mn (2022A) to RMB207,480mn (2025E).
• Operating Profit: Projected to rise from RMB19,723mn (2022A) to RMB47,546mn (2025E).
• Net Profit: Forecasted to increase from RMB10,380mn (2022A) to RMB49,021mn (2025E).

Balance Sheet (in RMB mn)

• Total Assets: Projected to grow from RMB595,250mn (2022A) to RMB789,482mn (2025E).
• Total Shareholders Equity: Expected to increase from RMB213,956mn (2022A) to RMB292,666mn (2025E).
• Cash & Equivalents: Anticipated to grow significantly, reaching RMB184,086mn (2025E).

Cash Flow (in RMB mn)

• Net Cash from Operations: Expected to grow from RMB57,819mn (2022A) to RMB77,763mn (2025E).
• Net Cash from Investing: Likely to decrease, reaching RMB-27,891mn (2025E).
• Net Cash from Financing: Expected to increase, reaching RMB28,954mn (2025E).

Shareholding Structure

• Richard Qiangdong Liu: 13.8%
• Max Smart Limited: 13.3%

Share Performance

Stock Data

• Mkt Cap (US$ mn): 54,722.0
• Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn): 483.2
• 52w High/Low (US$): 47.08 / 24.95
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 1,538.0

Analysts

• Saiyi HE, CFA
• Ye TAO, CFA
• Wentao LU, CFA
• Joanna Ma

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Important Disclosures

• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
• The information is not guaranteed and may be subject to change.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance does not indicate future performance.
• Investors should consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views.
• No part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed.
• The analyst confirms they have not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's release.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The report is subject to applicable laws and regulations.
• CMBIGM may have a position in the securities of companies referred to in the report and may have conflicts of interest.
• The report is intended solely for the use of the intended recipients and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.