> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # JD.com (JD US) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights - **1Q26 Financial Performance**: JD.com reported revenue of RMB315.7bn for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 4.9% YoY increase, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. Non-GAAP net profit was RMB7.4bn, a 42% YoY decline due to continued investment in food delivery (FD), but still ahead of the forecast. JD Retail (JDR) contributed significantly, with a 17% YoY increase in operating profit and an expanded operating margin to 5.6%. - **Marketplace and Advertising Growth**: Marketplace and advertising revenue rose 18.8% YoY, driven by improved advertising efficiency and increased ad load. General merchandise revenue increased 14.9% YoY, while E&HA revenue declined 8.4% YoY. - **FD Business Progress**: The operating loss from new businesses, primarily FD, narrowed to RMB10.4bn in 1Q26 from RMB14.8bn in 4Q25, with FD losses expected to halve in 2Q26E to RMB6.6bn. - **Share Repurchases**: JD repurchased approximately 44.5mn Class A ordinary shares in 1Q26 for US\$631mn, with US\$1.4bn remaining under its share repurchase program valid through Aug 2027. ## Forecasts and Outlook - **Revenue Growth**: JD's revenue is forecasted to grow 6.6% in 2026, with a 14.9% YoY increase in general merchandise and 20.6% in marketplace and advertising. However, price hikes in 3C and home appliance categories could create short-term revenue headwinds. - **Earnings Growth**: JD Retail is expected to show strong earnings growth, with non-GAAP operating profit projected to increase by 4%–5% in 1H26/2026E. The company maintains its revenue and earnings forecasts for 2026–2028 largely unchanged. - **Valuation**: The DCF-based target price remains at US\$47.5, based on a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%. This valuation reflects the company's expected future cash flows and growth potential. ## Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: RMB1,395.9bn in 2026E, with a YoY growth of 6.6%. - **Gross Profit**: RMB236.7bn in 2026E, growing at 12.7% YoY. - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: RMB30.8bn in 2026E, with a 14.0% YoY growth. - **Operating Margin**: JD Retail's operating margin expanded to 5.6% in 1Q26, up 0.7ppt YoY. - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: Increased to 2.2% in 2026E, up 0.6ppt YoY. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to reach 10.1% in 2026E, up from 8.4% in 2025A. ## Shareholder Returns and Market Performance - **Share Repurchase**: JD repurchased 44.5mn shares in 1Q26, with a total consideration of US\$631mn. - **Share Performance**: Over the past 12 months, JD US has delivered an absolute return of 2.5% and a relative return of -10.1%. - **Current Price**: US\$31.49, with a target price of US\$47.50 and a potential upside of 50.8%. ## Risk Factors - **Consumption Recovery**: Slower-than-expected recovery may impact growth. - **Competition**: Increased competition could pressure margins and revenue. - **FD Investment**: More aggressive investment in FD may weigh on earnings growth. ## Analyst Recommendations - **Rating**: Maintain BUY. - **Target Price**: US\$47.50. - **Outlook**: The company's strong core earnings growth, coupled with improved efficiency in FD, supports the BUY rating despite short-term challenges from price hikes. ## Valuation Table (Selected Metrics) | Metric | 2026E (RMB bn) | 2027E (RMB bn) | 2028E (RMB bn) | |----------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | Revenue | 1,395.9 | 1,492.6 | 1,568.7 | | Gross Profit | 236.7 | 257.9 | 274.8 | | Non-GAAP Net Profit | 30.8 | 41.7 | 49.4 | | Gross Margin | 17.0% | 17.3% | 17.5% | | Non-GAAP Net Margin | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | ## Key Financial Ratios | Ratio | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------| | P/E (x) | 12.5 | 8.4 | 6.9 | | P/B (x) | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | | Current Ratio (x) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | ## Shareholding Structure | Holder | Percentage | |--------------|------------| | BlackRock | 5.9% | | Vanguard | 4.6% |