2020全球可再生能源展望：能量转换2050（英文版）_292页_16mb

Global Renewables Outlook Summary (2020)

Core Content

The Global Renewables Outlook 2020 is a comprehensive report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) that outlines the path to a sustainable, low-carbon global energy system by 2050. It emphasizes the need for a just transition to align economic recovery with long-term climate and socio-economic goals, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report provides an overview of the technical, economic, and social implications of shifting to renewable energy and presents several scenarios to guide decision-making.

Main Viewpoints

1. Energy Transformation Pathways

IRENA outlines three key scenarios for the energy transition:

• Planned Energy Scenario (PES): Based on current government plans and policies up to 2019, it reflects the baseline trajectory of energy development.
• Transforming Energy Scenario (TES): An ambitious and realistic pathway focused on renewable energy and improved energy efficiency, aiming to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and towards 1.5°C by 2050.
• Deeper Decarbonisation Perspective (DDP): Explores further decarbonisation options, targeting zero emissions in challenging sectors by 2050-2060.

The TES and DDP scenarios are highlighted as the most critical for achieving climate goals and long-term economic stability.

2. Climate Goals and Emissions Reduction

• To meet the Paris Agreement targets, renewables must supply two-thirds of the world's energy by 2050.
• 70% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions could be cut by 2050 through renewables and energy efficiency.
• Over 90% of the emissions reduction will be achieved through these two pillars.
• Challenging sectors like transport, industry, and natural gas infrastructure will require additional measures such as green hydrogen, direct electrification, and carbon capture to reach net-zero and zero emissions.

3. Socio-Economic Impacts

• The energy transition can create over 100 million jobs globally by 2050, with renewables driving the majority of these.
• Solar energy is the main driver of renewable energy job creation.
• GDP gains are expected in all regions, with indirect and induced effects playing a major role.
• Welfare improvements are linked to health benefits and emission reductions.
• The European Union is projected to gain the most jobs and economic benefits from the energy transition.

4. Policy and Investment Needs

• Renewables, efficiency, and electrification are the core focus for the transformation.
• Investment redirection is necessary to ensure that trillions of dollars are allocated to sustainable energy rather than fossil fuels.
• Fossil fuel subsidies should be redirected to support clean energy without causing social disruption.
• A comprehensive policy package is required, covering deployment, enabling, and integrating policies.
• International cooperation and resource mobilization are essential for achieving the goals of a sustainable and just energy transition.

Key Information

• IRENA is an intergovernmental organization established in 2011, dedicated to promoting the sustainable use of renewable energy.
• The report was authored by IRENA's Renewable Energy Roadmap (REmap) and Policy teams, with contributions from experts and reviewers from various institutions.
• The Transforming Energy Scenario (TES) is the primary reference for long-term planning, offering a climate-safe investment framework.
• The Deeper Decarbonisation Perspective (DDP) focuses on zero emissions in sectors that are difficult to decarbonise, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy industry.
• Hydrogen, electric vehicles, and smart charging systems are critical technologies for the future energy system.
• Energy system flexibility is vital for managing the integration of variable renewable sources like solar and wind.

Regional Focus

• Several regions are projected to achieve 70-80% renewable energy use by 2050.
• East Asia, South East Asia, Rest of Asia, European Union, Rest of Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, Oceania, and Sub-Saharan Africa are all analyzed for their energy and socio-economic transformation.
• The socio-economic impact varies by region, with GDP growth, job creation, and welfare improvements differing in magnitude and structure.

Investment and Policy Recommendations

• Investment redirection is necessary to avoid stranded assets and lock-in of unsustainable practices.
• Public policies must align with sustainable and just development, ensuring inclusive growth and social equity.
• Innovation and technology are key to overcoming the challenges of decarbonising difficult sectors.
• The European Green Deal serves as a model for integrating climate and energy goals with economic recovery.
• Smart charging, energy storage, and interconnected hydropower are critical for the transition to electric mobility.

Conclusion

The Global Renewables Outlook 2020 underscores the necessity of a rapid and inclusive energy transition to meet climate goals, socio-economic development, and energy security. It calls for policy coherence, investment in renewable technologies, and international collaboration to ensure that the energy transition is both sustainable and just. The report also highlights the potential of clean energy to drive economic recovery and improve global welfare.

Summary of Key Figures and Tables

• Figure S.1 shows the changing nature of energy and fossil fuel use.
• Figure S.2 illustrates the six-fold increase in renewables needed by 2050.
• Figure S.3 highlights the increasing electrification of energy systems.
• Figure S.4 underscores the need for power system flexibility.
• Figure S.5 emphasizes the role of hydropower and bioenergy.
• Figure S.6 shows the importance of hydrogen in future energy systems.
• Figure S.7 and S.8 provide insights into emission reductions and investment priorities.
• Table 2.1 and Table 3.1 outline the socioeconomic and investment indicators for the energy transition.
• Table 5.1 and Box 5.1 describe key decarbonisation solutions and carbon capture technologies.

References and Further Information

• Available for download: www.irena.org/publications
• For further information or feedback: info@irena.org
• The report is based on IRENA's REmap approach, which has been used for country-level and sector-specific analyses since 2014.