20260410-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_828kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI's Fixed Income Department, summarizing market movements, trading desk comments, macroeconomic news, and analysis of specific issuers, particularly Medco Energi (MEDCIJ). It also includes information on new issues, pipeline offerings, and important disclosures.

Key Market Movements

• New Issues: MIZUHO new issues tightened 1-3bps this morning, with better buying observed in 10yr SHIKON/FUBON/LGENSO/MEITUA. FOSUNI 28 was 0.9pt higher, and NWDEVL 10.131 Perp gained 0.5pt.
• Secondary IG Space: Front-end LGENSO tightened 5-10bps in the morning, but the tightening was cut in half in the afternoon due to Asia AM/RM selling. KOMRMR tightened another 3-4bps.
• HK Market: FAEACO 12.814 Perp led the space with a gain of 2.1pts, LIFUNG 29 was 1.1pts higher, WESCHI 28-29 was 0.4-0.7pt firmer.
• Chinese Properties: VNKRLE 27' and 29' edged 0.4pt higher.
• Yankee AT1s: Retraced 0.3pt.
• LGFV Space: Better buying in higher-yielding CNH issues, while USD issues saw heavier selling across the credit curve.
• Non-LGFV 10yr CNH Credits: Better buying observed across TMT and non-Chinese names like PSASP, NESNVX, and CB.

Top Movers

Trading Desk Comments

• MIZUHO New Issues: Fixed-rate and floating MIZUHO 29s tightened 5-7bps from ROs, while MIZUHO 31s traded 13-18bps tighter. Long-end MIZUHO 36-46s were unchanged.
• MUFG New Issues: Fixed-rate MUFG 30-47s hovered around initial pricing, while MUFG Float 32 tightened 7bps from RO.
• Market Activity: Moderate risk trimming from institutions, mixed two-way flows from PBs, and better selling and short covering during the London session.
• Yankee AT1s: Retraced 0.3pt.

MEDCIJ Analysis

• Resilience Performance: MEDCIJ has shown resilience across business cycles.
• Bonds Traded: MEDCIJ 8.625 05/19/30 and MEDCIJ 8.96 04/27/29 are trading at YTM of 7.3% and 7.4%, respectively, and are considered good carry plays.
• Operating Performance: Despite a 14.1% drop in realized O&G prices, Medco Energi's FY25 results were largely flat, driven by higher O&G production, PSC cost recovery, higher power sales, and power prices.
• Production Growth: O&G production rose to 156 mboepd in FY25 from 152 mboepd in FY24, supported by new fields and increased working interests.
• Power Sales Growth: Power sales increased to 4,371 GWh in FY25 from 4,108 GWh in FY24, driven by new power projects and expansion in existing facilities.
• Renewables Growth: Renewables accounted for 25% of total power sales in FY25, up from 20% in FY24.
• FY26 Guidance: Medco guides O&G production to increase by 5.8-9.0% to 165-170 mboepd, power sales to increase by 4% to 4,550 GWh, and O&G production cash cost to be under USD10/boe.
• Financial Profile: Medco maintains a healthy financial and liquidity profile, with a recent USD200mn tap at 103.072 for MEDCIJ 8.625 05/19/30. As of Dec’25, it had USD629mn in cash and USD439mn in short-term debt.

Financial Position Summary

Operating Performance at a Glance

New Issues

Priced

Pipeline

News and Market Color

• Onshore Primary Issuances: 120 credit bonds issued yesterday for RMB103bn, with a total of 562bn raised month-to-date, a 40.8% yoy increase.
• China State-Owned Carriers: Adding thousands of flights to Europe; China considers aid package due to soaring fuel costs from the Iran war.
• Electric Car Sales: Slumped 14% yoy in Mar'26, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.
• Indonesia Oil Supply: Moved a quarter of its oil supply away from the Middle East.
• China Jinmao (CHJMAO): Moody's downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2, with stable outlook.
• JSW Steel (JSWIN): Crude steel output rose 8% in FY26.
• Nickel Industries (NICAU): Resumes operations at Hengjaya mine after a two-week suspension.
• Sinochem Executive: Charged with bribery and abuse of power in China.
• SoftBank (SOFTBK): Explores participation in TEPCO's USD6.3bn fundraising.

Important Disclosures

• Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have positions or act as principal in securities of companies mentioned, which could affect the report's objectivity.
• Use of Report: Intended for use by the recipients only and may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or distributed without written consent.
• Investment Risks: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Legal Disclaimer: The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security and is not intended for distribution to individuals outside the defined categories.

Contact Information

• Fixed Income Department
  Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801
  Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk

• Analysts

  • Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
  • Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
  • Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk

Author Certification

• The author certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views in this report.
• The author confirms that they have not dealt in or traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue and will not do so within 3 business days after. They also confirm no financial interest in the companies mentioned.