海外投资者在伦敦新建住宅市场中的作用（英文）_31页-1mb

Summary of "The role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market"

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the Greater London Authority (GLA), investigates the role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market through four key research questions. The findings aim to inform policy development by examining the proportion of new-build units purchased by overseas buyers, the impact of these purchases on housing supply, the role of off-plan sales, and the involvement of major overseas investors in the development process.

Main Research Questions

1. What proportion of new residential units in London is bought by overseas buyers?

   • Approximately 13% of new-build units across London were sold to overseas buyers between April 2014 and March 2016, according to York University's analysis.
   • In central London, this proportion rises to over 50%, though the total number of units is relatively small.
   • The proportion of overseas buyers decreases with distance from the centre, and increases with property value.

2. What proportion of these units is left empty?

   • Developers reported occupancy rates of up to 95%, with less than 1% of units being left entirely empty.
   • Units bought for rental purposes typically have high occupancy rates, while those used as second homes may be occupied for only a few weeks a year.
   • Most units purchased by overseas investors are used for rental or family accommodation, not as primary residences.

3. To what extent do the funding models of London residential developers rely on off-plan sales to overseas buyers?

   • Off-plan sales are crucial for developers to secure funding and reduce risk, especially for large-scale projects.
   • Overseas buyers are more likely to engage in off-plan sales due to their experience with this model and lack of UK mortgage constraints.
   • Domestic pre-sales are also important but occur later in the development process.

4. What is the role of major overseas investors in the residential development process in London?

   • Major overseas investors, including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and debt providers, play a key role in financing large-scale developments.
   • They are instrumental in accelerating development, particularly in central and inner London.
   • Build to Rent (BtR) schemes have benefited significantly from international investment, contributing to the growth of the sector.

Key Findings

• Overseas buyers are concentrated in central and inner London, especially in zones 1, 2, and accessible parts of zone 3.
• 70% or more of sales to overseas buyers are for letting purposes, with 30% for family accommodation or personal use.
• Pre-sales are vital for developers to manage risk and secure funding.
• Off-plan sales are often targeted at overseas buyers, who are more familiar with this model.
• Major overseas investors have a significant impact on the development process, particularly for large and complex projects.
• Affordable housing is often a by-product of market development, and international investment helps increase supply.
• The net effect of overseas investment has been positive for Londoners, particularly since 2010, by enabling stalled sites to be developed and increasing housing availability.

Limitations and Considerations

• The definition of 'overseas buyer' is based on residence outside the UK, not nationality.
• Data collection is limited and inconsistent, especially regarding country of residence.
• The sample data is biased towards larger developments and central London, where overseas buyers are more active.
• Overseas sales are often overrepresented in statistics due to the focus on high-value properties and international marketing.
• The role of overseas buyers in the overall market is underestimated when considering only central London or high-value properties.

Spatial and Price Segmentation

• Central London has the highest proportion of overseas buyers, with 53% of transactions involving overseas residents.
• Inner London has a 38% share of overseas buyers, while outer London has a much lower proportion, typically under 10%.
• Higher-priced units (especially in central and inner London) are more likely to be sold to overseas buyers.
• Smaller developments tend to have fewer overseas buyers, and many developments have no overseas buyers at all.

Conclusion

Overseas investors contribute significantly to the new-build residential market in London, particularly in central and inner London, where their involvement helps accelerate development and increase housing supply. While their role is most visible in high-value, off-plan sales, they also support affordable housing through the development process. However, their influence is concentrated and not uniform across the entire market, with local buyers still playing a dominant role in many areas. The research highlights the complexity of the market and the importance of understanding the nuances in data collection and buyer behavior.