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Urine Market Analysis Summary

• Market Trend: Urine prices have rebounded, with factory prices increasing by about 10 RMB/ton. Downstream demand has improved, evidenced by inventory reduction and higher terminal purchases.
• Supply Side: Daily production holds above 205,900 tons, with high utilization rates, but demand is rising from fertilizer plants.
• Demand Side: Winter stocking-up demand has boosted purchases, leading to weekly inventory declines; however, this demand may not sustain long-term, as market conditions are cautiously optimistic.
• Futures Analysis: The Urine 2601合约 closed up 1.15%, with net long positions in some firms and net short in others, indicating mixed market sentiment. Basis has weakened, reflecting tighter supply-demand balance.
• Overall Outlook: The market is expected to exhibit range-bound movement due to dual increases in supply and demand, with price pressures from both sides.