2016年-世界发展银行全球_MENA_Quarterly_Economic_Brief_January_2016___The_Economic_Effects_of_War_and_Peace_44页_1mb

Summary of The Economic Effects of War and Peace (MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016)

Core Content

This brief provides an analysis of the economic effects of war and peace in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on both the immediate and long-term impacts of conflict and its resolution. It highlights the challenges posed by ongoing wars and the potential for economic recovery through peace and reform.

Main Points

Global Economic Context

• The World Bank revised its global growth forecast for 2015 down to 2.4%, 0.4 percentage points below the June 2015 estimate.
• Slower growth in developing countries, especially China, and the decline in commodity prices (notably oil) contributed to the downward revision.
• High-income countries saw a slight growth pickup in 2015, but the 2016 forecast was reduced by 0.2 percentage points due to global trade slowdown and U.S. dollar appreciation.
• The World Bank projects global growth to rebound to 2.9% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2017-18, assuming orderly rebalancing in China and continued recovery in high-income countries.

Oil Price Volatility

• Oil prices fell by 35% in 2015, reaching below USD 30 per barrel in early 2016, which is one-quarter of their 2014 peak.
• The World Bank forecasts an average oil price of USD 37 per barrel in 2016 and USD 48 in 2017.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also estimate USD 40 per barrel for 2016.
• Low oil prices are causing significant fiscal losses for oil-exporting countries, with some higher-cost producers possibly exiting the market.

MENA Economic Outlook

• The World Bank revised the 2015 growth forecast for the MENA region to 2.6%, slightly lower than 2014.
• The outlook for 2016 and 2017 is more optimistic at 4.1% and 4.4%, respectively, contingent on peace settlements and the resumption of oil exports.
• GCC countries are expected to maintain flat growth due to prolonged low oil prices.
• Countries like Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq are still struggling with economic decline due to ongoing conflict and low oil prices.

Impact of War on Specific Countries

• Syria: Civil war and ISIS conflict have led to a 15.8% decline in GDP growth in 2015, with per capita income falling by 23% compared to a peaceful scenario.
• Iraq: GDP growth declined to 0.4% in 2015, with a fiscal deficit of 14.5% of GDP. The war has caused a 28% drop in per capita income.
• Libya: Economic growth fell by 5.2% in 2015, with a fiscal deficit of over 55.2% of GDP. The country's oil production has dropped to one-third of its pre-war levels.
• Yemen: The economy has shrunk by a quarter, with a fiscal deficit of 74% of GDP in 2015. Inflation doubled to 21%, and international reserves fell to USD 3 billion.

Effects on Neighboring Countries

• Lebanon: Refugees account for one-quarter of the population, leading to significant fiscal pressure. Real GDP growth is expected to fall by 2.9%.
• Jordan: Hosts over 630,000 Syrian refugees, leading to increased unemployment and fiscal strain. Investment as a share of GDP dropped to 27.4% in 2015.
• Egypt and Tunisia: Both have seen a decline in tourism due to terrorist attacks, affecting growth and employment. Remittance inflows have also slowed, with Egypt's at 4% growth in 2015 compared to 10% in 2014.

Fiscal and Structural Challenges

• Many oil-exporting countries are facing large fiscal deficits due to low oil prices and high public spending.
• Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit reached USD 140 billion in 2015, with public debt projected to reach 20% of GDP by 2017.
• Public expenditure reforms are being implemented in several countries, including subsidy cuts, wage controls, and reduced public-sector hiring.

Peace and Recovery Prospects

• Peace settlements in conflict zones like Yemen and Libya could lead to a recovery in economic activity and investment.
• Reforms in public spending, particularly in subsidies, are expected to improve fiscal sustainability in the long term.
• Economic growth is projected to rise in 2016 and 2017 for some countries, but recovery will depend on political stability, security improvements, and access to global markets.

Key Information

• War Impact: Civil wars lead to significant economic damage, including reduced GDP growth, increased fiscal deficits, and loss of human capital and infrastructure.
• Refugee Crisis: Forced displacement has placed a heavy burden on host countries, increasing fiscal pressure and reducing economic activity.
• Oil Dependency: Many MENA economies are highly dependent on oil revenues, and low prices are causing severe fiscal stress.
• Reforms: Public expenditure reforms are being undertaken to reduce fiscal imbalances, with notable examples in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Jordan.
• Peace Prospects: Economic recovery is expected in the medium term if peace is achieved and reforms are sustained, but risks remain due to ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

The economic effects of war in the MENA region are profound, with significant shortfalls in growth and increased fiscal burdens. However, the potential for recovery through peace and structural reforms is present, though contingent on political stability and the restoration of economic activity. The region's oil-dependent economies face particular challenges due to volatile oil prices and high public spending.