2025-03-24-欧洲央行-综合货币政策决策和报表（英）_6页_127kb

ECB Monetary Policy Summary – 6 March 2025

Core Content Overview

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council has decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, effective from 12 March 2025. This decision reflects the ECB's updated assessment of the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.

Key Interest Rate Adjustments

• Deposit facility rate: 2.50%
• Main refinancing operations rate: 2.65%
• Marginal lending facility rate: 2.90%

These cuts aim to make borrowing cheaper for firms and households, supporting economic activity and reducing the restrictive nature of monetary policy.

Inflation Outlook

• Headline inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027.
• Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected to average 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027.
• The ECB expects inflation to return to its 2% medium-term target sustainably, driven by moderating wage growth and the fading effects of past rate hikes.
• Energy prices have slowed, but food prices have risen, contributing to overall inflation.

Economic Growth Projections

• Growth for 2025: 0.9%
• Growth for 2026: 1.2%
• Growth for 2027: 1.3%

The downward revisions reflect lower exports, weak investment, and high policy uncertainty, particularly from trade and geopolitical tensions. However, rising real incomes and lower borrowing costs are expected to support a gradual increase in demand over time.

Monetary Policy Transmission

• The ECB's rate cuts are making new borrowing cheaper, leading to increased loan growth.
• Lending remains subdued due to the lingering effects of past rate hikes on the credit stock.
• The ECB will adopt a data-dependent approach, adjusting policy based on incoming economic and financial data, and will not commit to a specific rate path.

Asset Purchase Programmes (APP and PEPP)

• The ECB's asset purchase programmes are declining at a measured and predictable pace.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal payments from maturing securities, leading to a gradual reduction in the size of these portfolios.

Risk Assessment

• Downside risks to growth include escalating trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and prolonged effects of monetary tightening.
• Upside risks include easier financing conditions, falling inflation, and increased government spending on defence and infrastructure.
• Inflation risks are two-sided, with global trade friction potentially affecting both import costs and export demand.
• Climate-related events could increase food prices beyond expectations.

Financial and Monetary Conditions

• Market interest rates have increased recently due to revised fiscal policy expectations.
• Firm lending increased slightly in January, with an annual growth rate of 2.0%.
• Debt securities issued by firms grew by 3.4%.
• Mortgage lending continued to rise gradually, with an annual growth rate of 1.3%.
• Monetary policy transmission is being monitored closely, with the ECB prepared to adjust its instruments to maintain price stability.

Conclusion

The ECB remains committed to achieving its 2% inflation target in the medium term. It will monitor economic data closely and adjust policy as needed, without pre-committing to a specific path. The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address any disorderly market dynamics that could hinder monetary policy effectiveness. The ECB will continue to support price stability and smooth monetary policy transmission across the euro area.