期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2018number1_23页_2mb

NBER Reporter Summary - March 2018

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for March 2018 provides a quarterly summary of research conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), highlighting key findings and initiatives in development economics. The document includes several studies on poverty alleviation, agricultural markets, migration, and entrepreneurship, as well as information about the NBER's structure, funding, and programs.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. The Graduation Program and Poverty Alleviation

• The Graduation Program, developed by BRAC, is a multifaceted initiative aimed at helping the poorest individuals escape extreme poverty.
• The program includes:
  • A productive asset grant
  • Access to a savings account
  • Two years of training and support
• A large-scale RCT across six countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Honduras, India, Pakistan, and Peru) showed that the program led to significant and lasting improvements in consumption, income, savings, assets, and mental health.
• Effects persisted for at least a year after the intervention and in India for up to four years.
• The study emphasizes that the program as a whole is critical for transformative impact, as individual components alone did not yield substantial results.

2. Microcredit and Its Limitations

• Microcredit has been widely promoted as a tool to reduce poverty, particularly in rural areas.
• However, rigorous studies show that microcredit effects are often transitory, with limited long-term benefits for the poorest.
• Research highlights that self-selection of borrowers is crucial for the effectiveness of microcredit.
• Liquidity constraints and rigid wages in rural areas also play a role in limiting the impact of microcredit on poverty reduction.

3. Agricultural Markets and Rural Development

• Understanding rural markets is central to development economics, as many of the poorest work in agriculture.
• Small farms in developing countries tend to be more productive due to reliance on family labor.
• Wage rigidity in rural areas exacerbates poverty, as wages do not adjust with weather conditions.
• Weather insurance can improve productivity but also has unintended consequences, such as increasing the impact of weather shocks on landless laborers.
• Accurate weather forecasts help farmers make better investment decisions and reduce out-migration.

4. Migration and Economic Growth

• Migration helps mitigate spatial misallocation of labor in developing economies.
• However, large productivity gaps between sectors persist.
• Subsidies in rural Bangladesh were found to increase out-migration, especially during periods of low labor demand.
• Non-financial factors such as social norms and information play a major role in migration decisions.

5. Entrepreneurship and Firm Productivity

• A "missing middle" of mid-sized firms exists in developing countries, where small firms are numerous but less productive.
• Providing financial capital and managerial support to microenterprises did not lead to sustained profit increases.
• In-kind services had a more positive impact on firm profits than cash grants, especially for female entrepreneurs.
• Better business practices are associated with higher firm productivity, and these practices are more common among better-educated individuals and the children of entrepreneurs.

NBER Overview

• The NBER is a private, non-profit research organization founded in 1920.
• It focuses on objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• The Development Economics Program, launched in 2012, is the youngest NBER program and brings together scholars working on fundamental questions of economic development.
• Program members are affiliated with other NBER programs, and nearly three-quarters are also affiliated with other NBER programs.
• The program benefits from collaborations with BREAD (Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development).
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence.

Additional Information

• Digital currency and blockchains are explored as potential tools for economic development.
• Charitable giving motives are analyzed using empirical data.
• Income and consumption inequality since the 1960s is discussed in the context of economic growth.
• NBER News and Conferences are also featured, along with Program and Working Group Meetings.
• NBER Books are highlighted, providing a comprehensive view of the organization's research output.

Key Insights

• The Graduation Program is a successful model for poverty reduction that combines financial, savings, and training components.
• Microcredit has limited long-term impact, especially for the poorest.
• Wage rigidity and market frictions are significant barriers to economic improvement in rural areas.
• Weather forecasting and insurance can have both positive and negative impacts on different groups.
• Migration and entrepreneurship are important but constrained by structural and institutional factors.
• The NBER plays a vital role in advancing research on development economics through its programs, working groups, and collaborations.