2015年-世界发展银行全球_Bahia_State_Brazil___Ariculture_Sector_Risk_Assessment_186页_6mb

BAHIA STATE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY SUMMARY

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural sector risks in Bahia State, Brazil, and proposes a risk management strategy to support sustainable rural development and poverty reduction. It is part of a World Bank initiative in collaboration with the Regional Development and Action Company of Bahia (CAR) and the Secretariat of Agriculture of Bahia (SEAGRI), aimed at enhancing the resilience of the agricultural sector.

Main Subsectors and Risks

1. Agro-industrial Commercial Agriculture in the West of Bahia (Cerrado)

• Key Risks:
  • Extreme dry climatic conditions
  • Resistant pests and weeds due to intensive chemical use
• Impact:
  • High exposure to drought and pests, which can severely affect production and marketability
  • Requires integrated pest management (IPM) and better climate risk information systems (ACIS)

2. Commercial Fruit-culture

• Key Risks:
  • Exotic diseases
  • Severe droughts
• Impact:
  • Vulnerable to disease outbreaks and water scarcity
  • Needs improved early warning systems and disease prevention measures

3. Commercial Horticulture

• Key Risks:
  • High price volatility
  • Aggressive pests and diseases
• Impact:
  • Price fluctuations affect profitability and market stability
  • Requires better market access and pest management strategies

4. Family Agriculture

• Key Risks:
  • Severe drought
  • Irregular precipitation
  • Price volatility for crops like cassava
• Impact:
  • Small-scale producers are highly vulnerable to climate shocks
  • Needs support in terms of price guarantees and climate adaptation measures

5. Livestock Production Chains

• Key Risks:
  • Outbreak of exotic diseases
  • Other diseases (e.g., classical swine fever, brucellosis, tuberculosis)
  • Severe drought
• Impact:
  • Livestock is heavily affected by disease and water scarcity
  • Requires enhanced sanitary and phytosanitary systems (SPS) and better disease monitoring

Key Risks and Their Impact

• Frequent Risks (Moderate Impact):
  • Climate risks (drought)
  • Pest and disease risks
  • Price volatility
• Occasional Risks (High/Catastrophic Impact):
  • Exotic diseases in livestock
  • Severe droughts
  • Diseases in fruit and cacao crops
• Government Interventions:
  • Several programs exist to manage these risks, including:
    • Renival (enhancing and expanding)
    • Garantia Safra (price guarantee program)
    • PAA (National Program for Acquisition of Food from Family Farmers)
    • ACIS (Agroclimatic Information System)
    • SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary System)
  • However, the management of these risks remains inadequate and requires improvement

Estimated Annual Losses

• The unmanaged production risks caused an estimated R$ 186 million (US$ 105 million) in average annual losses over the last 20 years.
• Catastrophic Losses:
  • During the 2002 and 2003 droughts, losses were R$ 398 million and R$ 390 million, respectively, which is more than double the average annual loss.
  • In 2006 and 2009, losses were R$ 238 million and R$ 263 million, respectively.
• Crop-Specific Losses:
  • Cacao: 48%, 62%, 46%, 44%, and 20% of total losses in 1999-2003
  • Soybean: 29%, 36%, 35%, and 29% of total losses in 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2009
  • Papaya: 18%-22% of total losses in 1996-2000
  • Beans: 38% of total losses in 2004

Risk Management Strategy

1. Agroclimatic Risk Information System (ACIS)

• Need: Improved climate data and early warning systems
• Elements:
  • Climate monitoring
  • Risk zoning
  • Integration with existing systems

2. Sanitary and Phytosanitary System (SPS)

• Actions:
  • Implement IPM in the Cerrado region
  • Prevent the introduction of exotic pests
  • Expand the Renival program for cassava

3. Supply Chain Coordination

• Objective: Strengthen coordination across the supply chain to reduce vulnerability
• Focus: Improve market access, logistics, and information sharing

4. Agricultural Innovation System (AIS)

• Need: A working innovation system to support risk management
• Elements:
  • Research and extension programs
  • Technology transfer
  • Capacity building for stakeholders

Proposed Action Plan

• Short-term Plan:
  • Develop and implement an ACIS
  • Strengthen the SPS with integrated pest management and disease prevention
  • Improve supply chain coordination and information sharing
  • Enhance the AIS through better research, extension, and innovation support
• Responsible Institutions:
  • CAR and SEAGRI are leading the implementation of the Bahia Produtiva project
  • Other institutions such as EMATER-BA, EMBRAPA, and SEFAZ are involved in specific programs and policies

Key Findings

• The agricultural sector in Bahia is highly vulnerable to climate, pest, and price risks.
• The most significant losses occur in specific crops and subsectors, indicating a need for targeted interventions.
• Government interventions exist but are not sufficient to fully manage the risks.
• The study emphasizes the importance of strengthening the ACIS, SPS, supply chain coordination, and AIS to improve resilience and reduce the impact of agricultural risks.

Conclusion

This risk assessment and management strategy provides a foundation for the Bahia Produtiva project, which aims to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the agricultural sector. The proposed actions focus on improving information systems, enhancing disease and pest management, strengthening supply chain coordination, and promoting agricultural innovation to better manage and mitigate the risks facing Bahia's agricultural sector.