世界银行-无国界暴力：犯罪和冲突的国际化（英文）-2020.6-147页_2mb

Summary of Violence Without Borders: The Internationalization of Crime and Conflict

Core Content

This report, Violence Without Borders: The Internationalization of Crime and Conflict, explores how conflict, crime, and violence have become increasingly transnational, affecting not only the domestic environment but also regional and global stability. It emphasizes that in a globalized world, these issues are no longer confined to national borders and require coordinated international efforts to address.

Main Views

• Internationalization of Conflict and Crime: The report highlights that conflict, crime, and violence are now regional and global public goods, meaning their prevention and resolution require collective action.
• Cross-border Spillovers: There is a significant increase in the geographical spread of conflict and crime, with refugees traveling longer distances, transnational terrorist attacks rising sharply, and illicit drug trade reaching a 30-year high.
• Transnational Determinants: Four key transnational factors drive conflict and crime:
  1. International Demand and Supply Shocks: Fluctuations in global markets for a country's major products influence the likelihood of conflict.
  2. Foreign Regulations: Policies on illicit goods and services affect domestic producers and consumers.
  3. Technology Diffusion: Communication technologies facilitate coordination of protests and build trust or mistrust.
  4. Conflict Contagion: Violence spreads through both tangible (e.g., arms, money) and intangible (e.g., ideas, grievances) flows across borders.
• Role of International Actors: Foreign military interventions and development assistance can have mixed effects on violence, sometimes increasing state capacity and sometimes worsening public perception.
• Free-riding Problem: Countries are reluctant to support fragile states unless they have a direct stake, leading to underprovision of assistance.
• Need for Multilateralism: The report calls for multilateral institutions to play a key role in addressing these issues through coordinated policies, data sharing, and financial support.

Key Information

Global Trends in Conflict and Violence

• In 2017, 79% of armed conflict fatalities were from internationalized conflicts.
• There were 11,000 terrorist attacks, including 579 transnational attacks, affecting 103 countries and causing over 26,000 deaths.
• Refugee flows have become more dispersed, with the average distance traveled increasing by 60% from 1987–91 to 2012–17.
• The global trade in illicit drugs (e.g., opium, cocaine) reached a 30-year high, with production concentrated in a few countries.
• Piracy in international waters remains at 1995 levels, despite a decline in Somali piracy after 2012.
• Elephant and rhinoceros killings are far above 2000 levels due to persistent demand for wildlife products.

Transnational Determinants

• International demand and supply shocks influence the economic incentives for conflict and crime.
• Foreign regulations on illicit goods and services affect returns along the supply chain.
• Technology diffusion plays a growing role in coordinating criminal and violent activities.
• Conflict contagion spreads through both material and intangible resources.

International Interventions and Their Effects

• Military interventions can enhance state control over crime and insurgency but may also deepen public distrust.
• Development assistance can improve livelihoods and offer alternatives to violence, yet its impact on government legitimacy is ambiguous.
• Targeted economic sanctions and anti-money laundering (AML/CFT) measures are discussed as tools to curb transnational crime.
• The "do-no-harm" principle is challenged by the risk that foreign interventions may inadvertently worsen conflict and crime in some contexts.

Policy Recommendations

• Systematic data collection is essential for informed policy and research.
• Multilateral institutions should be used to coordinate international responses and address collective action problems.
• Policy coordination across countries is needed to prevent the "beggar-thy-neighbor" effects of domestic policies.
• Innovative tools and resources are required to gather and process data in fragile and conflict-affected areas.

Structure of the Report

Chapter 1: Crime, Conflict, and Violence without Borders

• Discusses the internationalization of conflict, terrorism, and transnational crimes.
• Highlights the human and economic costs of cross-border spillovers.
• Examines refugee flows, terrorist attacks, and illicit drug trade.

Chapter 2: Transborder Determinants of Crime, Conflict, and Violence

• Introduces the contest success function model to analyze the drivers of violence.
• Reviews empirical evidence from economics, political science, and criminology.
• Identifies four transnational determinants of crime and conflict.
• Analyzes the ambiguity of foreign interventions and their potential to alter the balance of power.

Chapter 3: Security in a Globalized World

• Explores the rationale for international security assistance.
• Examines challenges in providing such assistance, including asymmetric information and collective action problems.
• Emphasizes the role of multilateralism in addressing these issues.
• Calls for greater policy and financial instruments to resolve disputes outside of conflict zones.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the internationalization of crime and conflict is a pressing issue that requires global cooperation and multilateral engagement. It stresses the importance of data sharing, policy coordination, and innovative approaches to ensure that security and development are not undermined by foreign interventions. The "do-no-harm" principle must be upheld through careful design of aid and security policies, recognizing the complex interplay between international and domestic factors.