2025-06-17-Bernstein-阿什泰德（AHT）_阿什泰德_第四季度北美租赁收入增长加速_11页_593kb
报告摘要
- Rating and Price Target: Outperform; price target set at 6,250p for AHT.LN.
- 4Q25 Results: Adjusted PBT/$0.79 was 5% ahead of consensus ($0.72), driven by 3% North America revenue growth (vs. consensus 1%) and improved EBITDA margins to 45.4%.
- FY26 Guidance: Rental revenue growth expected 0-4% (consensus 3.6%); capital expenditure projected $1.8bn-$2.2bn (35% below consensus), focused on replacement due to utilization levels; free cash flow forecast $2.0bn-$2.3bn (BERN estimates: $2.0bn).
- Risks: Potential funding disruption for US entities, negative industrialization changes, US non-residential construction downturn, or a structural shift to ownership from rental models.
- Valuation: Justified at 6,250p using EV/IC multiple of 2.7x CY25e, reflecting resilient but stable market and higher growth potential.
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