2021-07-31-国际战略研究中心-CPTPP实施两年（英）_12页_899kb

Background on CPTPP

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was signed in 2018 by 11 countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. It aims to deepen trade liberalization in goods and services, includes a comprehensive e-commerce chapter, and has had varied impacts on trade, investment, and e-commerce patterns over two years post-signing. Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Vietnam declined to ratify the deal swiftly.

Trade and Investment Patterns

Vietnam has shown significant growth in goods exports and foreign direct investment inflows. Japan and Singapore lead in digital services trade, which has surged, partly due to the agreement's provisions. Global supply chain disruptions and demand shocks from COVID-19 initially hindered trade, but rapid growth in e-commerce—especially cross-border and business-to-consumer models—strengthened during this period. China's role as a major import source for CPTPP members increased, contrasting with the bloc's limited intra-regional trade growth compared to global trade. Tariff liberalization under CPTPP, such as reduced barriers for Vietnam, contributed to some gains, but other factors like broader trade agreements and the COVID crisis influenced these trends.

E-Commerce Impacts

The CPTPP's e-commerce chapter spurred growth in domestic and cross-border e-commerce, particularly during the pandemic. E-commerce platforms and marketplaces drove increased sales and exports for businesses. However, enforcement challenges and broader issues like small business adaptation limited intra-bloc flows. Initial estimates showed significant year-over-year growth in B2C e-commerce in countries like Malaysia and Vietnam, highlighting the agreement's potential to boost digital trade patterns.

Influence on Other Trade Agreements

The CPTPP has significantly influenced the e-commerce provisions of subsequent trade deals. For instance, agreements like the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) adopt model rules on data transfer and digital governance, inspired by CPTPP. Similarly, regional pacts such as the RCEP and bilateral deals with partners like Singapore and Chile reference CPTPP-like commitments, extending its impact. Despite this, some RCEP provisions, like those exempting from dispute settlement mechanisms, may limit the agreement's influence in practice.

Conclusion

Early patterns indicate the CPTPP is reshaping trade and e-commerce in its region, with members like Vietnam and Singapore showing notable gains. However, attribution to the agreement is not confirmed due to external factors like global trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic. The insights are relevant for new potential members, such as the UK and South Korea, and countries negotiating similar e-commerce provisions. Further research is needed to determine long-term causation effects.