国际战略研究中心-CPTPP对数字贸易的影响及未来路径（英）-2021.10-65页_3mb

Summary of "The CPTPP's Impacts on Digital Trade and the Path Forward"

Core Content

This report, authored by Kati Suominen and published by the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business, examines the impacts of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on trade, investment, and digital commerce within the CPTPP region, particularly two years after its implementation. The analysis is based on trade data, firm surveys, and insights from the CPTPP's provisions.

Main Points

1. Trade and Investment Patterns

• CPTPP Members' Trade Fluctuations: In the first year of implementation (2019), CPTPP members' trade with each other dropped by 4 percent, though Vietnam saw 7 percent growth. In 2020, due to the pandemic, all members' exports to the bloc declined, but Vietnam and Chile managed to grow their global exports.
• Intra-Bloc Trade Growth: Only Vietnam and Brunei showed significant intra-bloc export growth (4% and 15% respectively), while most other members saw little or no growth in their trade with other CPTPP members.
• Import Trends: Brunei, Singapore, and Vietnam increased their imports from CPTPP peers, with Malaysia and Chile also showing growth. However, these flows were from a low base and accounted for only 1% of total imports.
• China's Role: China has become a major import source for most CPTPP members, surpassing the U.S. and EU in significance, especially for countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
• FDI Resilience: Vietnam experienced robust FDI inflows despite the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic, with FDI growth of 7% in 2019. Malaysia and Mexico also saw modest FDI gains.

2. Digital Trade Provisions

• E-Commerce Chapter: The CPTPP's e-commerce chapter includes provisions such as banning data localization, promoting free cross-border data transfers, and ensuring consumer data privacy.
• Impact on Businesses: The e-commerce provisions are seen as timely and relevant for firms that already engage in digital trade, particularly those that export, sell online, and leverage cross-border data.

3. Services Trade

• Digitally Deliverable Services: Before the agreement's implementation, the largest CPTPP members saw growth in digitally deliverable services trade, with Japan and Singapore leading the way.
• Post-Implementation Trends: In 2018, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore saw growth in their services exports to the CPTPP region. Imports of digitally deliverable services also increased, especially from Japan and Singapore, which are each other's leading digital trade partners.
• Bilateral Corridor: Japan and Singapore's bilateral trade in digitally deliverable services accounts for 57% of all CPTPP intra-bloc trade in this sector.

4. Cross-Border E-Commerce

• Covid-19 Impact: Domestic e-commerce grew significantly in the CPTPP region during the pandemic, with B2C e-commerce increasing by up to 40% in some countries.
• Challenges for Small Firms: Despite growth, cross-border e-commerce remains challenging, especially for smaller businesses, due to logistical and regulatory barriers.

5. Influence on Other Trade Agreements

• Provisions Exported: The CPTPP's digital trade provisions have influenced other trade agreements, such as the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), Chile-Uruguay FTA, and the USMCA.
• RCEP Similarity: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed in 2020, includes a similar e-commerce chapter, though it lacks a dispute settlement mechanism for digital trade provisions, allowing members to exempt themselves from certain rules to protect national interests.

Key Information

• The CPTPP is a significant trade agreement signed in 2018 by 11 countries, including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
• The agreement's e-commerce chapter is considered groundbreaking, addressing issues like data transfer, consumer protection, and digital service liberalization.
• The report emphasizes that while the CPTPP has had some positive effects, its impacts are not yet fully realized and should be interpreted alongside other global and regional factors.
• Surveys of 530 firms in Australia, Mexico, Singapore, and Vietnam show that a large portion of firms are engaged in e-commerce and data transfer activities, indicating the potential long-term benefits of the CPTPP.

Conclusion

The CPTPP has contributed to shaping trade and investment patterns in the region, with Vietnam and Singapore showing notable gains. However, its effects are not yet clear-cut, and further research is needed to understand its causal impact. The agreement has also influenced the digital trade provisions of other trade deals, suggesting a lasting legacy in global trade policy.