2021-09-30-国际战略研究中心-CPTPP对数字贸易的影响及未来路径（英）_65页_3mb

Summary of "The CPTPP's Impacts on Digital Trade and the Path Forward"

Core Content

This report, authored by Kati Suominen and published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzes the impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on trade, investment, and digital trade in the CPTPP region, particularly in the context of global events such as the U.S.-China trade wars, the Covid-19 crisis, and the rise of e-commerce. It explores the trade patterns, business perceptions, and the influence of the CPTPP's digital trade provisions on member economies.

Main Points and Findings

1. Trade and Investment Patterns

• CPTPP Members' Trade Performance: Two years into the agreement, trade and investment patterns among CPTPP members have largely mirrored global trends. Vietnam has shown significant growth in both exports and imports, especially to Japan.
• Export Trends: In 2019, the first year of implementation, CPTPP members' trade within the bloc dropped by 4 percent. However, Vietnam and Brunei had notable growth (7% and 27%, respectively). In 2020, amid the pandemic, exports to the CPTPP region declined, but Vietnam managed to grow its global exports due to increased demand for electronics.
• Import Trends: Brunei, Singapore, and Vietnam saw growth in imports from other CPTPP members. However, overall intra-bloc trade growth was limited, with most members increasing their trade with the rest of the world, especially China.
• China's Role: China has become a more significant import source for CPTPP members, reflecting its economic rise. This has shifted the balance of trade relationships, with China increasingly prominent in the region's trade dynamics.

2. Services Trade and Digital Deliverables

• Services Trade Growth: Before the CPTPP came into force, the largest members saw growth in digitally deliverable services trade. Singapore and Japan were leading in this area.
• Digital Trade Provisions: The CPTPP includes provisions that liberalize digital trade, such as free cross-border data transfers, a ban on data localization, and consumer data privacy protections. These provisions have influenced the growth of services trade.
• Bilateral Corridors: Japan and Singapore form a significant bilateral corridor for digitally deliverable services, accounting for over 57% of the region's intra-bloc trade in this sector.

3. Impact of the CPTPP on E-commerce

• E-commerce Growth: Domestic e-commerce has surged in CPTPP member countries during the pandemic, with countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, and Peru seeing growth of up to 40% in B2C e-commerce.
• Cross-Border E-commerce Challenges: Despite this growth, cross-border e-commerce remains challenging, especially for smaller businesses. However, the CPTPP's e-commerce provisions could help ease these challenges if effectively enforced.
• Online Sales Channels: Most firms use social media for marketing and messaging apps for customer transactions. A significant portion of large firms already utilize global marketplaces like Amazon, Lazada, and Shopee.

4. FDI and Economic Impact

• FDI Resilience: Vietnam has maintained strong FDI inflows even during the global slump caused by the pandemic, with a 7% increase in 2019, driven by South Korean and Chinese investors.
• Tariff Liberalization: The CPTPP has significantly reduced tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTMs), particularly for Vietnam, which is expected to gain substantial market access by 2030.
• Economic Benefits: Brunei and Vietnam are projected to experience the highest GDP growth gains from the CPTPP, with Brunei at 1.9% and Vietnam at 1.1% by 2030.

5. CPTPP's Influence on Other Trade Agreements

• Digital Trade Provisions Exported: The CPTPP's digital trade rules have influenced other trade agreements, including the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), the Chile-Uruguay FTA, and the USMCA.
• RCEP and Digital Trade: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes many CPTPP members, has adopted similar digital trade provisions. However, its e-commerce chapter is not subject to the dispute settlement mechanism, offering more flexibility for members.

Key Information

• CPTPP Membership: 11 countries signed the CPTPP in 2018, with seven ratifying it promptly.
• Data Sources: The report draws on data from the IMF, WTO, and UNCTAD, as well as survey data from 530 firms in Australia, Mexico, Singapore, and Vietnam.
• Digital Trade Provisions: These include a moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions, non-discriminatory treatment for digital products, and protections for consumer data privacy.
• Future Outlook: The report suggests that more data and analysis are needed to fully understand the CPTPP's impact. It also highlights the importance of the CPTPP in shaping future digital trade negotiations and agreements.

Path Forward

• Research and Analysis: The report calls for more research to determine the causal effects of the CPTPP on trade and investment.
• Policy Implications: The CPTPP's digital trade rules offer a model for future agreements and could help create a more open and integrated digital trade environment.
• Geopolitical Considerations: The rise of China and the impact of the RCEP on digital trade highlight the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region.

Conclusion

The CPTPP has had a significant impact on trade and investment in the region, particularly in digital services and e-commerce. While its effects are still being assessed, the agreement has set a precedent for digital trade liberalization and influenced other trade deals. Its provisions remain relevant for businesses that rely on digital platforms and cross-border data flows.