韩国央行-经济展望（2025年5月）（英）_12页_1mb

GDP growth for 2025 has been sharply revised downward to 0.8% from the previous forecast of 1.5%. This is due to a delayed recovery in domestic demand and slowed export growth caused by the impact of U.S. tariffs. The future growth path is highly uncertain and depends on trade negotiations, as well as the implementation of government stimulus measures.

CPI inflation is projected to stay stable at 1.9% in 2025. Upward pressures from rising food and service prices are expected to be offset by declining global oil prices and weak demand.

Global economic growth is weaker than previously forecast due to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs. Trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding negotiations remain the primary risks for growth. Inflation is sensitive to oil prices and exchange rates.

The Bank of Korea has outlined three scenarios based on trade negotiation outcomes:

• One assumes current tariffs remain, with additional item-specific tariffs imposed in the second half of the year, leading to weaker growth.
• An optimistic scenario assumes a significant reduction in tariffs by the end of the year, boosting growth slightly.
• A pessimistic scenario reassumes higher tariffs, resulting in further slowed growth and marginally lower inflation.

Inflation and growth expectations from major forecasting institutions have shifted, although inflation forecasts remain unchanged.

Employment growth is projected to reach 120,000 in 2025, but will be weak due to declining jobs in private sectors and continued growth in public and healthcare sectors.

The current account surplus is expected to reach $82 billion, higher than previously forecast. However, geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk to the surplus due to potential increased imports during trade negotiations.

There remain significant upward and downward risks for future growth and inflation, including the outcome of trade negotiations and global economic conditions.